i didn't look to see prediction - I only looked to see speed of change.
I hope I am wrong with the following
"2007/08 was the worst imaginable for the markets"
arrh, not quite.
Is it not clear that far worse conditions are in place right now that led to ww2?
What actually do people think will happen if China and Japan stop supporting the US?
What do people think will happen in Europe in the next year or two?
Do we really think that we can keep this up?
I don't think many of us have any idea at all how 'primitive' this can get.
What you identified from the events in 2008 are correct - and only some of them at that ---------
but, don't miss the point -------------- the damage is still with us.
The mess is still here. All we have done is raised huge amounts of debt to house the mess, to cover it, to plaster it over ---------- now we have mess plus larger mess.
This will keep limping down the road -- as long as it is supported by China and Japan ----------- but, eventually, they will not be able to support it.
Europe is not dissimilar.
Debt doesn't go away - it can be disguised, it can morph into something else ----------- but it cannot change from one page to the other.
And worse still -------------- crisis can happen very very rapidly. Greek Cyprus might not be a good example because of its size - but it is still instructive --
go to bed on Friday night - everything is ok, slightly unsettled but by and large to everyday people - ok -
wake up monday and people are in severe trouble - and it is just getting worse and worse.
This is only a timing thing - the US chickens MUST come home to roost - they have had a wake up in 2008 - but it is only a wake up - there is a mountain of debt looming over them - there has been for quite a while - but, not this big - and, there have always been people prepared to take their dollars - the really big bang comes when that stops.
People won't want to stop taking their dollars - but they will come to a point where they can't - and that might happen almost overnight.
Whenever that happens - we will be severely impacted. Asian partners or no Asian partners.
