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I've invested a fair bit over $100,000 since the announcement of...

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JLB1865

583 Posts.

26/08/15

18:54

Post #: 15881114
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Originally posted by entropylord ↑

JLB,

First off, I have now looked the DFS and agree they were projecting A$2.32 AISC. I will be pleasantly surprised if we see as low, however I will note that in Aud the copper credits about hold and fuel and labour costs should be down. We will see.

Secondly as for WSA, I have been following for many years. Always report a low cash cost, never a AISC. Currently projecting C1 cash cost of A$2.50 but that does not include anything like all non capex expenditure. Then you need to add the budgeted sustaining capex for at least another 80 cents just for a start. I have not yet been through their FY but will be surprised if AISC isn't well above A$4.00

Thirdly refinancing the debt on better terms. Well surely that speaks of IGO's cashflow and diversity, not any view the banks may have on the pon. My concern is not whether the pon can repay the debt, but whether it will also repay the billion plus SIR mc we are paying, plus a decent profit on top. Banks have it very easy in comparison.

Finally, as for IGO being thumped, well it isn't the FY 15 performance, nor the FY 16 production or cost outlook. Nor is it the gold, which is largely unchanged in AUD.

It's complex, but firstly the market saw a big transfer of value from IGO holders to Sir holders, then imho derated management and removed the halo. Then IGO ceased to be rated as a gold company, so lost that premium. Then nickel tanked and being seen as a now cashless nickel company is not the best space to be in today's market, esp if your management are seen to be less than astute.

Without the SIR deal I have little doubt that IGO would be trading between 4 and 5 and fast approaching a cash chest of $1 per share to swoop with cash on some bargain, halo intact.

Nova is going to need the discovery of a twin to make IGO management look even half astute again. Great operationally, but poor deal makers.

EL

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I've invested a fair bit over $100,000 since the announcement of the merger and probably now down around 15% all up. Yes, had I been able to predict the gold and nickel price crashes since that announcement, I would have been buying a lot more at today's prices .... but that is investing and why I've kept buying all the way down.

But the reason for investing in it has never changed and only gotten stronger the harder gold and nickel prices are squeezed. I am not a trader, but I am confident this deal will set up a company that will become a household name in the medium term. What I pay today will be immaterial when these metals recover.

IGO Price at posting: $3.22 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

SIR Price at posting: $2.66 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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