Speculation on Japanese revenue stream

Didn't want to post a response to Madamswer in the last thread as it would get drowned out.

As I understand it, the treatment being fast-tracked (whatever that means in practice) is for acute Graft versus Host disease, which affects about 50% of patients who have a haematopoeitic stem cell transplant. The actual level of risk depends upon the degree of allogeneity with the donor cells.

Japanese data is hard to find, but there are probably about 22,000 allogeneic HSCT globally, 70-80% of which are in Europe and the USA. So assume that, say 15% are in Japan, you get 3,300 cases. 50% get acute GvHD, so the absolute maximum number that are available for MSB's product are 1650.

Let's say, MSB has a penetration of 10%, 25% and 50% at years 1, 2, 3 and they charge $50,000 for a dose.

Revenue =
Yr 1: $8.25m
Yr 2: $20.6m
Yr 3: $41.2m

If the indication is second line - i.e for acute GVHD refractory to first line therapy (high dose steroids and similar), halve the numbers.

So, not bad money, but perhaps not enough to stave off a capital raising. Though it may have a positive effect on the SP, so money could be raised at a higher price.

Speculation disclosure: I don't know the likely selling price of MSB's product. $50K seems like an extraordinary number, but refractory GvHD is a nasty disease with 90% mortality. Similarly, I don't know what the penetration rate will be, but these are educated guesses.