speculation

A mate suggested Cougar to me in Q2 2010 as a potential goer. Whilst I was researching CXY disaster struck in the form of the QLD Gov. So I backed off and watched and kept an occasional eye on it ever since, one must agree, it has not been pretty (tad understated) with CXY being beaten down to penny dreadful status or at least SP pricing wise anyway.

So why am I posting? Simply, I hold LNC and am interested in UCG. I see considerable possibilities in it. I still see a glimmer of future potential here, albeit in all probability not this year. That doesn't detract from consideration of taking a punt at some point.

Questions I ask myself or consider are...

1. Is the Court case likely to proceed some time early 2013. Witness list to be exchanged by 30 November, 2012. Both sides being monitored to have their acts together to proceed.

2. Ramifications of Cougar's reputation/standing of successful or unsuccessful verdict.

3. Ramifications of Cougar's financial base with either verdict.

4. From my amateur research I don't see much of a chance with China in the nearer term, Mongolia needs more progress direction, but Indonesia MOU JV certainly has possibilities if they are able to secure the coal tenements and contract JV. This is the main one I am looking at for possible future value in any case, whether that pans out or not time will tell.

5. Should CXY win the Court case along with compensation and there is no appeal. I consider that CXY may still require a CR at some stage. Possibly along with an announcement that they are moving forward in Indonesia, one must have a carrot of some form or other after all. I'm speculating that such CR occur it may include a re-evaluation of 10/1 to 20/1 depending on SP value. This isn't to say they will, it's just something I consider and they may well need cash eventually.

6. Should CXY win the Court matter, what is their IP worth or may it be considered for a M&A.

Although the above isn't exhaustive of my considerations they are the main targets. Of course along with the never ending question of how low will the SP go. The main worry being what will CXY be worth if the Court matter fails.

I'm not looking for any ramp up or ramp down scenario's, just any objective thoughts/information on any of the above.