I agree with many observations that the recent price was blocked at 34/34.5 was due to some deliberate act. could be due to TMI offloading but I felt that was done a few weeks/months ago. IMO, a more likely possibility could be takeover situation where price block at low level for extended period to "establish" a perceived market price for omh at 34. so when takeover offer is made at premium 50-75%, it at 50-60cts, the party involved hope they will be high acceptance from small shareholders since everyone has given up hope on the counter. Friday breakout of 34 is a good sign, but I still see some party trying to bring it down (definitely not your typical short sellers).
Why OMH is a good takeover target: 1) at market cap of A$250m, say normalize profit of $100m, PE is only 2.5x and still stock price is 80% below its high. if you do peer analysis, a) Press Metal is 60x PE (50x bigger than omh), price is way above pre crisis. b) Lynas is loss making (15x bigger than omh) and again share price way above precrisis and 4x up from crisis level. c) even perpetual loss making company like ferro globe can move its share price 5x from crisis low. 2) OMH is a super lagged yet cash flow positive (1h Editda A$50m) even during crisis, precrisis editda up to A$340m) And a likely beneficiary of economy upturn and huge infrastructure stimulus from US, China etc. Rotation play into Industrial Material sector is already happening. 3) Ferroalloy prices has also started moving in anticipation of economic recovery and we seems to have cross the bottom.
Global stock indexes has it hinted all time high everywhere incl ASX, Dow, S&P, Hang Seng, China. Now there is a lot of liquidity and many company are now in position to do M&A to acquire cash flow company that is still lagged (like OMH).
At this price, omh is definitely cheap and AFFORDABLE to many parties who want a cheap buy and strong cash flow company once recovery is underway. The takeover party just need to gather additional 10-20% stake and gang up with existing top few shareholders, they could ask for board seat or even takeover management if they have enough shares. The founding shareholder stands a high risk with low price situations when takeover offer happens. High share price is always a naturally deterrence for takeover as it happens back in 2008 with Consmin.
It's definitely a good speculative and yet value buy for existing and new shareholders NOW. With a takeover, it's at least 50-75% upside. And a Bursa listing should give an opportunity to re-rate omh valuation to be more on par with market comparable, and give an even more upside potential of $2-3 or more. Either scenario is good to load up.
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I agree with many observations that the recent price was blocked...
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Last
28.5¢ |
Change
-0.005(1.72%) |
Mkt cap ! $218.3M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
29.0¢ | 31.5¢ | 28.5¢ | $71.78K | 244.3K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 50000 | 28.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
28.5¢ | 30240 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 50000 | 0.280 |
1 | 36363 | 0.275 |
2 | 151481 | 0.270 |
4 | 21626 | 0.265 |
7 | 183899 | 0.260 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.285 | 30240 | 1 |
0.305 | 28130 | 1 |
0.320 | 30573 | 1 |
0.330 | 11079 | 1 |
0.345 | 46 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 28/08/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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OMH (ASX) Chart |
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