I think it more has something to do with the commercialism of the find. Rocksource has given a 50% chance of "success". What defines success? Just finding oil? or finding oil that is commercially viable to extract.
As posters have alluded to before, we don't know the porosity or permeability of the host rock. You can have high porosity but low permeability, or any combination of the two. I've only studied these conditions in coal seam gas but I presume the principles can be extrapolated to sedimentary rocks with hydrocarbon saturation, can anyone confirm? Dexter?
Anyway, no one has drilled here before so no one knows. Personally I think we can pretty much guarantee we hit oil, it's more going to be a matter of how fast can we make it flow.
I think it more has something to do with the commercialism of...
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