My take on the risk/reward is that STX is somewhat insulated...

My take on the risk/reward is that STX is somewhat insulated from the world markets at the moment. The risk of STX is all internal (with drilling success, GSA etc) for the next year. At that point STX will be exposed to the world as it is at that time. The PM gas strategy has reduced political/sovereign risk so that leaves market/price risk.
What will the world look like in one year's time?
Here is my prediction:
The world will have got over covid. Citizens will not tolerate further lockdowns and the vaccine will be the face-saving excuse to drop them. There will be no huge increase in deaths. Life will sort of return to normal albeit with reduced economic due to the debt hangover. That is, a regular recession. Oil demand will decrease from 2019 highs but be more than now. Oil supply will be back in balance and give OPEC the opportunity to increase price to say $60 Brent. (whatever the level has to be to prevent USA shale resurgence).

So regardless of timing of a vaccine, elections, and deep recessions, STX is good place to park funds for the next year or so. The worst case scenario for STX is to only produce from the WE2 hole. There is decision logic called "best worst". Of all the worst case scenarios for stocks, STX has to be the best.