LNC 0.00% 99.5¢ linc energy ltd

speculatively speaking, page-2

  1. 3,093 Posts.
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    Although I was not a happy person selling at $0.66 and seeing a rally above $0.80 I thought about what made me sell. These are big issues:

    1) A downgrade in 1P reserves (20m BOO to 13m BOO). This may impact the Reserves Based lending facility (or 2P based?)

    2) LNC cannot and will not meet its stated 1.9m+ BOOE FY 2013 oil production target. This appeared to be a case of "tell the shareholders what they want to hear." The debts will mount and reach dangerous levels.

    3) The FY13 forecast cashflow included a loan drawdown and other ambitious/unachievable targets. We will get some understanding of ongoing cashburn in the Sept Qly. It will be nowhere near on track to achieve a cash surplus (excluding Umiat which the company has flagged). Make no mistake that LNC is living dangerously cashflow wise.

    4) The company stated that "technical due diligence" has been completed by GCL. Does no result in late Sept mean that both parties are committed to executing a deal?

    5) The main thing that points to a lack of transparency and potential provision of misinformation by the company is no response from the company when I provided simple data and asked them to comment on the inaccuracies of my calculations and back up their own assertions. A lack of response says it all to me. Good companies do not do that.

    I make a point of not posting on stocks that I do not own so I will wish you all the best in your LNC journies and I will focus on other opportunities where information and market clarity are more evident.
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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