Smartdude... fair enough. Good Luck.
Dan/Smartdude... all your points, IMO, are more or less valid. Although leaning toward the negative.
I think the underlying asset values, even if valued in a fire-sale environment, still represent compelling value. But of course, this is a long-term view. IMO these assets change the dynamic of this business significantly... Linc is not a struggling minnow and has very real options if push came to shove.
- Oil Assets. Sure they spend money on them... and guess what they are worth more now then when they were purchased.
- Adani, Coal, Umiat... etc.
- UCG.. who knows?
Cashflow... sure, they are spending money, and guess what... a lot of that spend is variable... that is, they can turn it off without much pain. Can they raise more cash... IMO, easily.
On the flip side Linc suffers from too many irons in the fire. They need to go and read a book on Focus. But hey their strategy is one that involves risk... its high stakes. They seem to be adapting from R&D and Explorer to Producer and Commercialisation... A massive ask for any company. Their new structure seems sensible, and their use of good externals shows a bit more maturity. Will it all work... probably not, will some of it... yes.
All in all... if nothing else, it's great entertainment and apparentely the coffee isn't half bad.
Anyway, time to get back on the roller coaster.
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