When speaking with Ian... TRF was trading at 50c and IFE near 95c... he bought IFE on the spot as he sees more upside in the ST in IFE due to the Ore for 2011. TRF Vs IFE wise.
The little 25K bet did not make any difference to the IFE price however and actually slumped.
I see positives and negatives coming from the DFS...most of us have a clear idea what will be in it IMO. look at the latest IFE ammendments. OPEX raises and to achieve the 40M + in Yr 1 we need Ore to be approx $132+. We are over this NOW, so all looking good IMO. OPEX costs are amazingly high yet will drop a lot after Yr 1 IMO.
So becoming very much a play based on your personal outlook in the Ore price. I am very bullish on Ore and feel we will be at $170 next year... yet others will say below $100.
Under $100 and the project will struugle to make a profit- yet that is life. Risk Vs Reward still looking great even with a high OPEX in Yr 1.
No way believed the OPEX would be $55-$75 as reported before as we are using small ships. Sure once we move to large ship all will be great. Thus the ammendments were necessary IMO. As we would have all pointed to the obviously misleading OPEX if released to true $92 in the DFS- which it will be.
Regardless Ore would now need to drop hugely to not make a profit next year. If you think Ore will drop well below $100, thus a HUGE correction you should not be in ANY Ore play.
If you guess more of the same or better then this is the right place to be. We will make probably more than the current Market Cap in Yr 1 thus a 10 bagger IMO.
Plenty of upside in resource upgrades... the last broker report for IFE purely based on the project was a good one. Yet discounted heavily the targets IMO.
Cheers JAY
TRF Price at posting:
48.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
