speeding ticket issued, page-16

Hard to know qq, because it's hard to take PB at his word.

We've discussed Teresa here many times going back to 2008 when the deal was "weeks away." I get the impression it could have been sold long ago but PB is trying to drive the hardest bargain possible.

By most accounts there is 800Mt of coal resource and 200Mt of mineable coal in the permit. You might value the mineable coal in-ground at a bit over $1/t, once it's confirmed as Reserves, just using recent transactions as a comparison (COK got 90c/t for shallow thermal). At $1.50/t, that's $300M for Teresa which is probably fair. And that's LNC's current market cap, so make of that what you will. The problem is we don't actually know how the economics stack up without a BFS.

I never liked the oil deals anyway but that was a personal opinion. If Linc can meet its target production it should be a nice money spinner but tight oil is notoriously unpredictable. All I can say for the oil is, look carefully at the actual production figures vs the predicted. If they start to lag behind the predicted, take note. This could be the first sign of an underperforming field.

As for the broader company, I have had issues with some of PB's management decisions for years now. I don't express them much here because you just get shouted down by the cheer squad. I also don't like the continued silence on the UCG-GTL progress.

PB is good at flashy announcements about a new UCG deal in Poland or whatever, but the performance of the company just doesn't add up to the hype IMO.

But if Teresa goes for $300M, then you get the oil and UCG for free. I honestly do believe LNC is undervalued at this price - I just believe the market has little confidence in PB. Price could fall further, significantly further, before Teresa is sold. And when it's sold - look out, back over $1 is likely IMO.

And then I, personally, would probably sell out of LNC for good, because everything after that is very high risk IMO, particularly under this MD. I can always buy back in later when the UCG-GTL or oil is de-risked. Might miss the bottom but at least I won't lose everything.

And that is my opinion on Linc. Only provided because it was specifically asked for.