I now everyone in gold and gold stocks are somewhat worried over there values, so I decided to write up my thinking on what is in play.
As everyone knows the stock market is in free fall and gold is correcting, then there are the concerns over the covid 19 pandemic and how are we going to get through it all. During these times of high stress it becomes harder to think clearly about what to do in order to come out the other end of it all in good condition to continue on with life.
At this stage, I want to remind everyone that this is the way I see things at the moment. What actually does end up happening may be different to the way I am seeing things now.
**promotion blocked** news.
The Federal Reserve has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at financial markets in an attempt to stabilize investor sentiment that continues to be rocked by the spreading coronavirus. However, some economists and analysts are skeptical that the latest efforts will work.
Sunday, the Federal Reserve, in an emergency move and just days before its monetary policy meeting, announced that it was cutting interest rates to a target between 0% and 0.25%. It also announced $700 billion in new quantitative easing measures.
However, that has still done little to soothe investor fears as trading in the S&P 500 was halted after hitting limit down at the start of the Asian open Sunday evening. Looking ahead some market analysts are expecting to see even more selling.
"As we have seen time and again this past couple of weeks, added stimulus has had little lasting impact on markets as the virus numbers continue to worsen,"
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What is happening is that in the current environment, the governments of the world are producing stimulus packages to reduce the impact to the world economy due to the trigger started by the coronavirus, Covid 19.
So one needs to look at what impact will these stimulus packages have on gold and gold stocks, rather then just looking at what is occurring right now.
Here is another report from **promotion blocked** news.
Gold price undervalued, could rise to $2,000 an ounce in Q2 - ANZ Bank
The gold market is struggling to find traction as massive volatility and uncertainty roil financial markets and investors; however, one Australian bank sees upside potential for gold in the next three months.
In a report published last week, ANZ bank said that according to its estimates, gold prices are undervalued. The analysts said that they see prices pushing to $2,000 by the second quarter and then leveling off to end the year at $1,700 an ounce.
The updated outlook comes as gold prices have been unable to maintain recent gains, and even maintain support around $1,500 an ounce. Market analysts have noted that gold has seen renewed selling pressure as panic sweeping through financial markets is prompting investors to “sell everything.”
April gold futures last traded at $1,505.40 an ounce, down 0.75% on the day. ANZ said that in the current environment, fair value for gold is around $1,600 an ounce.
Although inflation pressures are expected to be nonexistent for the foreseeable future, analysts said that low bond yields and a weak U.S. dollar will make gold an attractive asset.
“Our gold-valuation model suggests current spot prices are actually slightly undervalued. Moreover, while net-long investor positioning is reaching record levels, technically it doesn’t look overbought,” the analysts said. “If we plug in conservative estimates of inflation, interest rates and USD, the near-term valuation looks even higher.”
The upgraded outlook came before the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to zero and introduced new quantitative easing measures in an emergency move Sunday. However, the analysts said that because of the growing economic risks due to the spreading coronavirus, they were expecting to see looser monetary policy in the near term.
“Synchronous central-bank rate cuts are the key to supporting gold investment demand. This has significantly raised the probability of gold breaking above USD2,000/oz,” the analysts said in the report.Looking at U.S. bond prices, the bank said that it sees the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries holding around 0.5% for the next few months.
“This leaves real interest rates in negative territory, creating a favourable backdrop for non-yield gold investments,” the analysts said. “Lower is clearly possible in the current circumstances, but we think the market has priced in a lot of bad news.”
The comments come as bond yields have pushed off their recent lows, but still remain under 1%, last trading at 0.82%.
Looking at the U.S. dollar, ANZ analysts said that they expect to see lower prices as the Federal Reserve loosens its monetary policy. However, analysts also warned that U.S. dollar will be extremely volatile as investors continue to search for safe-haven assets.
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So the ANZ bank believes that with the current conditions in the world, due to the Covid 19 outbreak, that there are processes in play that are very beneficial in one particular area of the market place. The effects are going to be very beneficial to the price of gold .
So at this moment in time, gold is in a correction. Not because the future outlook is negative for gold but rather that people are stressed and are selling everything they have in order to get out of a collapsing market.
Once it is seen that gold is the place to be due to the fundamentals in play, the price will turn up and there is a lot of room for gold to rise substantially. ANZ are saying US$2,000 an ounce, then you can add more as there is going to be many more stimulus packages required.
ANZ are saying this is likely to occur in Q2 and then correct to around $1,600 an ounce. Where as my understanding is that the high in the gold price is more likely to be around the end of September, before a correction kicks in.
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