GDN 0.00% 1.7¢ golden state resources limited

spin off value assumptions..., page-57

  1. 2,988 Posts.
    All talk of value needs to take all venture into account.

    1. Gas - unknown quantity as yet - hopefully it will be revealed tomorrow. There is a fair chance of a commercial well given the number of gas shows found altogether - particularly the highly fractures major gas interval in the Pinkerton Trail. Anything from nothing to $3-$5 per share here.

    2. Iron Ore - this has been ignored somewhat though the figures quoted in the last announcement suggest GDNs share will generate about 4cps annual income within a few years justifying a SP around 40c+ on its own.

    3. Uranium - also unknown. The resource estimate is based on drilling only a portion of predicted deposit looking for high grades ore that would have been commercial at the lower price decades ago. As we have seen elsewhere the initial estimate prior to ongoing exploration is likely to be massively underestimated (Look at BLR - historic figures 1-2 million pounds - now expected qauntity has progressively been upgrades t0 15-20 million pounds. Apply a similar upgrade to GDN and add Thompsons in and the resource starts looking very nice. Add the potential stag profit at IPO and I'm giving this 20-45c value contribution.

    So for me a total of 70c share price value on U and Iron Ore before adding the value of the gas. What the Gas is worth we can only speculate.

    They are doing a DST which at least signals they think that leadville may be productive.

    IMO very little is factored in for the gas already so I don't see a massive selloff - though have low buy orders in place just in case!
 
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