"Problem is, how much are they prepared to pay for it?" - That's...

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20/09/17

19:01

Post #: 27351336
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Originally posted by jakers ↑

A lot of truth in that. I don't think DRC or Africa is that bad to operate in, particularly for the Chinese. Main concern I would have is the distance to port. This is a real problem because of the scale of AVZ.

The resource is amazing/jaw dropping, easily the envy of lithium explorers world wide. It is huge, high grade, close to surface etc. I don't think the fact it has only 7 holes really matters that much - it is clear it is going to be a monster.

But to realise the full potential of AVZ requires an astronomical amount of capex. The production will need to be huge to make it worthwhile, and that means it all needs to be transported. Yes the tin will offset the costs of production, but that will need to be processed and shipped too. The scale of the infrastructure will have to be sufficient for a project of this scale, and I think that this will turn a lot of potential buyers off it. It just doesn't exist out there yet.

Can the Chinese make it work? Well if there is anyone who can it is them, there are profitable working mines in the DRC so I think the project as a whole could be feasible.

Problem is, how much are they prepared to pay for it? At the end of the day this is all that matters. If ML pulls it off and sells the project at or above SH expectations, my hat will go off to him.

Even though I tend to comment on AVZ in a fairly snide manner, I really do wish all AVZ holders all the best and hope that this world class resource is sold at a fair price.

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"Problem is, how much are they prepared to pay for it?" - That's a million dollars question. So I did a quick calculation to see, from a T/O perspective, how much would AVZ be worth? Here's what I've got. Of course there are flaws in the calculation as many factors are not provided for, and corporate T/O is a total different ball game.

View attachment 738153

Based on the above and given the huge amount of risk and many unknowns, I will probably pay 10-15%/(15-22c) of the estimated value.

AVZ Price at posting: 10.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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