Bringing this tread back as it has a lot of useful history. Hopefully comments on it will be kept on-topic to Lithium pricing but somehow I doubt it.
The three Fastmarkets tables below are approximately mid Jan, Feb and March:
- Spod: $8,050 / $6,750 / $5,350 (Down a third)
- Hydroxide (LB-LI-0033): $80.50 / $75.50 / $69.00 (Down 14.3%)
- Hydroxide (LB-LI-0040): 485,000 / 455,000 / 405,000 (Down 16.5%)
- Carbonate (LB-LI-0029): $78.00 / $70.50 / $57.50 (Down 26.3%)
- Carbonate (LB-LI-0036): 485,000 / 425,000 / 300,000 (Down 38.1%)
An interesting feature of the market over the last few months is the emergence of a significant gap between Hydroxide and Carbonate pricing. Back in early January this gap was minimal. Yuan prices were the same and there was only a $2.50/t gap for dollar pricing. It's now 105,000 yuan gap (-26%) and a $11.50 gap (-17%) with Carbonate being lower. Yuan prices are also lower.
These larger Yuan Carbonate falls indicate the Chinese carbonate market is getting closer to balanced and prices falling back nearer cost plus margins. Its unclear if this correction is more on the demand or supply side and arguments exist for both. I saw a chart circulating on social media that showed the Chinese sources of lithium which had Lepidolite at 20%. If a lot of this supply came on recently, it could be a significant factor on the Carbonate supply side. If it was difficult/impossible to refine/convert this Lepidolite to battery grade hydroxide, that would explain the divergence that is occurring.
Another interesting feature is due to Lithium having no robust market-traded spot markets, prices for Lithium are over the counter and can be hard to find. One of the easier sub-products on which to find prices is Lithium Carbonate because you can get free prices from places like Trading Economics. This means DIY investors may well have the much larger Yuan Carbonate movements as their perception as to what lithium prices are doing generally (Trading Economics has Yuan priced Carbonate down 47% from a peak on 14 Nov last year). While Hydroxide and Spod are down, they aren't down to the same extent.
(20min delay)