Nah mate, wouldn't dream of accusing you of that. I know you've been round the traps for a wee while now, your a solid holder and your always a good contributor, your just asking real questions given the somewhat fuzzy nature of our future income.
And to answer that as best I can, I reckon the cap for Yahua would probably be somewhere between 1000-1500 to be realistic (it was negotiated in 2019 and I reckon SB would have had the foresight to see what could happen) and the discount on Ganfeng, who knows what that is but
@BP134P9 had some good theories on it a while back suggesting it could range from 10-20% based on how high the price went (if you wanna elaborate here, I think we'd all be ears for any theories).
The remainder we take whatever we can get for it but I think north of 2.5K is an absolute given right now.
So if we project this out a little (and I'm making some assumptions here with future spod price but I do think they are fair)
1250 (median point of my suspected upper and lower caps) for Yahua - 75 000 tons
2500 USD with a 20% discount for Ganfeng - 75 000 tons
3000 USD for leftovers - 40 000 tons
All in sustaining cost is 441 USD a ton.
75 000 * 809 = 60675000 (Yahua)
75 000* 1559 = 116925000 (Ganfeng)
40 000* 2559 = 102360000(Leftovers)
Comes to a total of 279960000 million US dollars a year (280 US million a year) not including the lithium fines. If we assume a long term exchange rate of 1.35 USD to AUD then she works out to about 378 million a year AUD before the lithium fines are factored in. Maybe call it a round 380 before tax?
Not bad for a potential yearly pre-tax figure hey? I mean I consider it a realistic possibility given the current spod trajectory.
