Not this cycle - There is ~ 15 independent converters in China set up to convert spod, and others coming online around the world who are yet to secure feedstock, and those in operation are buying material on spot. Furthermore, you are only looking at the supply side, don't underestimated the other side of the ledger.
POSCO requires 315kt of spod for their 43kt hydroxide plant, and will expand to 220kt over the coming years. CATL has estimated 2023 cell capacity of 408GWh, which would consume 2.3 mill tonnes of spod, if all fed by spod. In 4 years, battery quality chem demand is going to be 1.1 mill tonnes, 4.5 x last years battery quality consumption.
CE has made it pretty clear, all Wodgina spod is heading to integrated conversion plants, thus wont find it's way on to the spod market.
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