July 8, 2024
Among the more than 1,100 attendees gathered, a number of topics dominated conversation.
Bearish sentiment prevails in spot lithium market
Ongoing sluggish demand and oversupply in thelithium markethas led to bearish sentiment toward the near-term outlook among delegates at the conference.
“Chile’s lithium carbonate and Australia’sspodumeneare still being shipped to China in large volumes, and new lithium projects are coming online. We are having a big oversupply issue,” a trader said.
“I believe there’s still downside room for lithium prices,” the trader added.
Multiple delegates at the conference told Fastmarkets that they didn’t see any support for demand to pick up in the near term.
Some other delegates expected some restocking in the third quarter, or before China’s National Day holiday (October 1-7), which could result in a rebound in lithium prices.
“Even if there’s rebound due to restocking demand, it will be short-lived, as in general the demand is still weak,” a Chinese lithium producer source said.
Rising African spodumene supply adds pressure to lithium market
Africa will become more and more important in terms of lithium supply, further adding pressure to an oversupply market, Fastmarkets learned at the conference.
Some major Chinese lithium producers have established vertically integrated lithium mine projects in Zimbabwe, including Huayou Cobalt,Chengxin Lithiumand Yahua Lithium, as well asSinomine. Some sources expect more supply to be released from these projects later this year.
In recent months, Fastmarkets heard that direct shipping ores of spodumene had already been shipped to China in large volumes from Africa.
“With the rising lithium hard rock supply from Africa, Australian spodumene will be under greater downward pressure amid existing oversupply and weak demand,” a trader said.
“We have already been sourcing spodumene from Africa from this year, as the prices are more competitive than Australian spodumene,” a second Chinese lithium producer source said.
Major producers say auctions add price transparency, efficiency
Top executives fromAlbemarle CorporationandPilbara Mineralsbelieve recent auctions of spodumene and lithium products are adding pricing transparency and trading efficiencies into the market.
“The end goal is to really create greater visibility and transparency around all forms of pricing at all different product levels within the supply chain, and to do so in a way that you can trust,” Eric Norris, president of energy storage at Albemarle, said during the Leaders’ Keynote Debate on June 25. “I’m not saying the data that’s out there today is untrustworthy, I’m just saying it’s thin. The amount of information that goes into that doesn’t come robustly from the marketplace.”
Scrutiny of reported prices from price reporting agencies (PRAs) has grown in recent years while the global lithium market has experienced shifts in market size, structure and pricing mechanisms.
Fastmarkets harnesses a variety of data when assessing its lithium and spodumene price assessments, ensuring transparency into the “tradeable level” in the open and competitive spot market.
The US-based spodumene and lithium producer’s strategy for most of its business will remain focused on long-term contracts, according to Norris.
But the hope is that the auctions will help minimize price distortion by providing a satisfying reference point for both buyers and sellers, he said.
The auctions “potentially allow the industry to contemplate hedging to mitigate some of the pricing risks as well,” he added.
Dale Henderson, chief executive officer of Australian spodumene producer Pilbara, believes the auctions are enabling better trading efficiency, with more market maturity still to come.
“What we need to move to is more efficient trading methods, as seen in other markets,” he said.
“The auctions that have been occurring over the last couple of years – in particular this last year – are enabling that better efficiency, but ultimately there is much more to go for the industry.”
Henderson outlined three key steps for the market’s evolution:
- Unifying product specifications and trading terms,
- Supporting sufficient volumes from both buyers and sellers,
- And coming together as an industry at a common marketplace.
Auctions are not uncommon in other commodity markets and can provide transparency to market prices, when full transparency regarding details and terms is provided.
These auctions, when normalized where appropriate, can be used by Fastmarkets in the price discovery process for lithium and spodumene.
Fastmarkets’ latest weekly price assessment for lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price ddp US and Canada was steady at $13.80-15.00 per kg on July 3. The corresponding assessment for lithium hydroxide monohydrate LiOH.H2O, 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price ddp US and Canada was also unchanged, at $13.50-14.50 per kg on the same day.
https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/what-we-learned-at-the-lithium-supply-and-battery-raw-materials-conference-2024/