I have to admit A$3.143b is a very generous MC for a Company with our profitability. I have mixed feelings about the recent shipload of Spod, NF reports on the Audrey falling into Jun21 quarter reporting. It would've been a nice contribution to Mar21 quarter profitability but Jun21 quarter looks like a bumper.
I do recall the Tesla share price skyrocketed once it began reporting operating profits. So I look forward to how the market will react to our impending notice of profit achieved.
The Piedmont share price looks embarrassing to me, especially for a Company with such a tiny resource and has locked in 1/3rd of its offtake for prices lower than current market value. Despite Australia signing on to America's protection of critical minerals (and annoying China in doing so and further affecting our trade relations), we've received no reciprocal assistance. It looks like Piedmont will look to Canada for additional resources.
I wondered if the Americans understood the wealth of Spodumene in the Pilbara. Like 10,000 other Tweeters, I follow "The Limiting Factor" for EV/ESS battery information. He mentioned the Mt Cattlin resource like it was something, so I couldn't resist advising the Pilbara Spodumene endowment. I got a "like", which of course meant my post was relayed to all his followers. It pays to advertise, I reckon.
So I hope the Tesla Fanboys who created distorted values for Tesla, GameStop, Bitcoin and Piedmont are now more informed about Australian Lithium raw material producers. Perhaps our share price may experience a similar run one day?
We had Josh Frydenberg installing the Critical Minerals legislation in Nov19 which riled the Chinese. The former POTUS (whose name cannot be mentioned for triggering anxiety disorders) reciprocated by announcing an Executive Order on 30Sep20 to assist allies developing critical minerals. However since the change in US Administration, we've heard nothing. All Politicians lie to get elected.
Ken mentioned in the RRS Seminar in early Jan21, that prices were increasing.
He noted that Chinese LCE prices had almost doubled and stated the lag in Spodumene prices was usually 2 to 3 months. Will we see Spod prices double off their historical lows? Recent price increases suggest they may. Underinvestment in Stage 1 producers could lead to a prolonged period of Superprofits.
At 23m mark he talks of the increasing demand for Spodumene production: "Yeah well, if you think about the growth that's likely to go on this year, last year we (the world) consumed roughly 300,000 of LCE tonnes. Most analysts this year have said its going to approach 400,000 LCE tonnes, so yeah ... plus 25% growth. If you think about that 100,000 tonnes, you need something like 800,000 tonnes of Spodumene but if you're thinking ahead, you'll need another million tonnes. I can assure you there are no number of mines that can be developed this year that will deliver a million tonnes of Spodumene. It just won't happen. The phase that we're going through here is another order of magnitude in growth and its going to be very difficult for raw material suppliers to keep up"
I looked back at Roskill's various forecasts for future Spodumene prices and they've never been close. What the future holds for Spodumene pricing, is anybody's guess. Perhaps ultimately limited, by Lithium making up ~5% of the cost of an end consumer battery pack (and ~11% of a battery cell).
I'm looking for the time, when youthful naivety will drive our share price to some ridiculous level. You're always gonna have to leave something on the table for any (albeit irrational) potential purchaser.
PLS Price at posting:
$1.09 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)