Hi miltiadis25 Wouldn't it be easy if we had a crystal ball that...

Hi miltiadis25

Wouldn't it be easy if we had a crystal ball that worked? Even Yogi is struggling with MEO ATM.

First of all we should understand that the BV of MEO is 6c p/s.

Secondly we don't know who the PF is or the details of the farmin deal.

Thirdly, I presume that you mean the SP immediately after the announcement.

From my own point of view, my starting point as to the value of MEO shares is the BV of 8c ps. Added to this the unrisked value of the Artemis prospect. I calculated this, using MEO's own formula (here), but with up to date variables, to be 91c ps.

Added to this is the rebate of seismic costs which MEO expects as part of the deal. This adds 2c VPS.

So the very basic VPS post +ve ann is 8+2+91=101cps.

From a TAs point of view, using madmacs chart (thanks for that), I note the fib ratios they will be watching will be:

23.6% - 43c
38.2% - 66c
50% - 84c
61.8% - 103c
100% or, of course, the previous all time high is 162c

So I will stay fairly conservative and say $1.00+, or >150% on todays close but once the ann is out there anything could happen. Especially once the instos come on board and there is a possible broker re-rating.

Once I see the ann then of course I will add in any other value MEO have negotiated with the deal. The amount of publicity and prestige etc will also need to be taken into account.

This is why there will be an initial trading frenzy once the ann is made, it is in MEO's nature. Once this subsides to the level decided by the market, it will be game on again leading up to the spud of A#1 - and the same question about the SP will be asked again.

Remember it is important to put a flexible strategy in place to cover all eventualities but keep your wits about you.

So perhaps it will run like this.

Pre TH the SP may test 43c and possibly move beyond.

During the TH and the details are released for us to see the pre-open SP may test the 66c mark.

Once the media releases are published the SP may rise to the $1.00+ mark. This is when the rollercoaster will start again.

Other, more experienced, posters say that an initial 3 day run (pump) is on the cards. This is when holders will need to decide the next move in their strategy.

If the deal does not eventuate then I believe the SP will initially go down - but not for long as MEO will probably go to plan B and approach one of the other potential farminees if necessary. Other companies (esp Chevron and WPL) would still be waiting to take advantage of the situation.

If the deal does not happen then it won't affect my long term view. This was covered by the CR just before the AGM in November ensuring the funds for MEO to drill Artemis themselves.

The deal will probably not be as good as the present one but the initial projected VPS should be the same - $1.00+.

Should MEO decide to go it alone the risk will be greater because a dry well would be disastrous. However until the drilling takes place pple will realise that MEO, still holding their 70% share in the permit, would have a new, increased, risked value of $2.83.

Please note I haven't made any mention of the Tassie Shoal projects.

All this is my opinion only so please don't take it as advice. Do your own calculations and use this as a guide only.

Good luck.

#:>))