THB 8.11% 4.0¢ thunderbird resources limited

I was just going through a few threads and I noted this one....

  1. jhu
    504 Posts.
    I was just going through a few threads and I noted this one.

    Sorry Hadas but IMO the comments from the company are a snow job:

    Regarding KN from the annual financial reports (2011) KN's is disclosed as follows:

    "Mr Nielsen is a geologist with 18 years experience covering a variety of commodities including gold, base metals, iron ore, phosphate and coal thoughout Australia as well as Africa and North America. He has performed in diverse roles from grass roots exploration throught to managing large resource development teams for Placer Dome and consulting to BHP Billiton's iron ore and coal divisions as a Team Leading Consultant for Snowden Mining Consultants. He studied geology at Macquarie University in Sydney and is a member of the AusIMM. Mr Nielsen is currently a director of Haranga Resource Limited (appointed 15 September 2009). Mr Nielsen was a director of Peak Resources Limited (appointed 6 September 2006, resigned 31 January 2009)."

    This is consistent with the announcement of 21 September 2009 (even down to the number of years experience not changing).

    What part of KN's background is not appropriate for a multi million dollar business such as VOR?

    In relation to the comment regarding not needing capital for 3-4 months I note that on 27 April 2012 the quarterly report was announced to the ASX with the following disclosure:

    - cash on hand - $2.692 million;
    - Payments for administration $0.667 million for the quarter and $1.998 million for the 9 month TD (average $0.666 million per quarter);
    - exploration costs $2.064 million; and
    - estimated cashflow for next quarter $1.3 million including $0.3 million of administration (less than surprisingly the Dec qrtly report also disclosed exactly the same estimated cashflow of $1.3 million with the same breakdown of $3.3 m of admin and $1 million of exploration).

    I also note the following information from previous quarterly reports

    - Jan 2012 - forecast cashflow of $0.3m admin and $1m exploration (actual reported in March of $0.667m admin and $2.064m exploration);
    - Sept 2011 - forecast cashflow of $0.3m admin and $1.5m exploration (actual reported in Jan of $0.804m admin and $5.197m exploration); and
    - June 2011 - forecast cashflow of $0.3m admin and $1.5m exploration (actual reported in Sept of $0.526m admin and $2.567m exploration).

    This indicates that any forecasts being prepared by VOR has next to no correlation to what is actually being spent or credibility for that matter.

    Even using the forecast spending and based on cash reserves at 31 March of $2.692m this leaves $1.392 million by June. Assuming that exploration stops on 1 July (notwithstanding that admin costs would also change) then at the end of September VOR has approx $800k in the bank. In addition there is the payment for the backlog of samples currently being tested and the JORC report.

    Maybe they have 3-4 months left in them. Maybe not!

    What I would like to know is the comment of

    "...hopefully when the global stock market will calm, and the jorc will be released"

    is this VOR's comment or yours. If it is VOR's then this is inconsistent with the 3-4 month cash reserves available and the potential capital raising, because the slow train wreak of Europe has only just started, with what appears to have Spain following the same route as Greece with its insolvent banking system. It also appears that it is being joined by China with a slowing of the economy (although 8% is still pretty fast compared to the rest of the world) and now USA with poor jobs results and an increase in unemployement to 8.2%.

    If VOR is waiting for this to conclude and hope to restore the share price before doing a capital raising then management need to re-think that strategy.

    This means that considering the comments from the company (above) the only option left to VOR would be to tap existing shareholders, be it Matthew Wood via a placement and maybe a share purchase plan, otherwise shareholders will be massively diluted at existing prices or see their investment evaporate in a puff of smoke.

    Sorry guys, time to start conserving capital in relation to this one.













 
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