Thorby thank you for your thoughtful comment (of course most comments on HC are thoughtful...) But re dont hold breath waiting for the big one (down) on Wall st.
Im not very skilled at copying charts and may infringe copyright so the essence of my statistical observation is this:
S&P 500 from 2008 to present
5 yrs up 500 to 1500. 2.5 yrs down to 900. 5yrs up to 1560, 1 yr down to 700, 5 yrs up to 1840.....and the chart has been parabolic in last few years...up, so what happens next? Five years in the stratosphere? History doesnt indicate it. What it says to me is the higher it climbs, and the faster, the harder it falls. The last two uplegs have been 5 years each. It has just reached this point again.
Then what...when it falls over the Fed will destroy the $US to try to rescue it. This will feed into commodity prices they say...inflation. Any debt by foreigners in $US will be shrunk in their own currency.
Looking at patterns in statistical series has been my living in part in the realms of power in this land. The professional side, not the political.
Im not going to put any money on this recent pattern suddenly changing. Each time when the DOW S&P 500 has reached this altitude a crash has followed. This time it has gone up harder and faster than ever. That tends to indicate an even harder faster fall.
Dont like being negative, but no one will notice me much, so prob no matter. If I was in a public forum of a more open kind I would zip the lips.
Im putting my lifejacket on and loosening the ropes on a good lifeboat, not going far from it. Anyone thinks its up there to stay...good luck. But the dice is heavily loaded against you. Hope you are right, but dont bet your house on it. Not much fun on a park bench. Think NCM is some insurance, long.
High stakes poker eh?
NCM Price at posting:
$10.20 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Not Held
