I think someone with nearly 60 years at the forefront of mining...

I think someone with nearly 60 years at the forefront of mining has a LOT more knowledge of the commodities business than an economist from Goldman Sachs or the average stockmarket punter. He was in the industry when oil was $2/barrel, 90% of geologists were unemployed and coking coal was shipped to Japan at a considerable loss. He has seen multiple booms and busts and thousands of Australian resources companies (big and small) go to the wall or be taken over.

The harsh reality is that the last 10 years have been a supercycle with once in a lifetime returns. This has resulted in extreme over-investment and a huge surplus in capacity. It will take decades for the excess capacity to be removed as existing mines are gradually closed. Only then will prices have a chance to rise above historical levels.

IMHO Alan Gray has made a catastrophic decision to buy into ARI and other resources companies. They have spent the last few days frantically trying to talk up ARI but none of the other big funds are buying into their BS,