With AGM's at the same venue...One immediately following the...

With AGM's at the same venue...

One immediately following the other...I think the timing of this TH...indeed the nature of the meetings themselves...were certaily not a coincidental or spur of the moment thing!

I reckon the price will be 65c...potentially with an added sweetener?

I base this on a highly technical, mega complex serious of calculations, with detailed assessment of the trading on the last day of each stock...with a grand total of 65K shares trading in INR for the entire day...and closing bid on GUJ of the exact same 65K number of shres.

lol...lets see.

Anyway, assuming this is a takeover...we may be umping the gun still...my previous value models suggested GUJ should carry a market cap higher than INR's...and that was without the metals assets.

At current prices, relativity gives GUJ's value at 76.9c per share...again, without considering the metals assets, or without reference to any premium due to infrastructure in place at Elouera and Avondale.

Value and price are rarely matched however.

Hard to say what the offer might be, but it would need to at least approach these sorts of numbers...even if via script coparisons? I have previously mentioned a script takover would also fix the lack of liquiditiy in INR, improve their critical mass, remove the "one-asset" concerns for the market...and also likely see them in the ASX300...if not the ASX200 in due course.

The synergies it seems go far beyond the assets themselves.

Anyway, might be an idea to revist a previous post...

Cheers!

Subject: now we have a value reference...
Stock Code: GUJ - GUJARAT NRE RESOURCES NL
Posted: 10/07/07 17:04 Hotcopper Radio: GUJ on BoardRoom Radio
Posted By: trade4profit - t4pblog Views: 292
Post #: 1936179 (Start of thread) Sentiment: Buy
IP: 124.180.xxx.xxx Voluntary Disclosure: Stock Held
So now we have a decent value reference...

WHC...
Current market cap ($2)= $650m
Reserves = 113mt (proved & probable)
Resource = 512mt (inferred)
Current production = 1.5mtpa
Projected production = 6.9mtps (by 2010)

INR...
Current market cap (55.5c)= $274m
Reserves = 35mt (proved & probable)
Resource = 324mt (inferred)
Current production = 0.5mtpa
Projected production = 4mtpa (by 2010)

GUJ...
Current market cap (33c) = $125m (fully diluted)
Reserves = 125mt (proved & probable)
Resource = 241mt (inferred)
Current production = 0.5mtpa ??
Projected production = 4mtpa (by 2009?)

Not only is GUJ less than half INR's market cap, it has significant exploration assets, a near term drilling campaign and even more coal in Tasmania.

Cash positions on a fully diluted basis sees GUJ in a much better position (about double the cash of INR) and with a much quicker path to increased production.

Even if we assume dilution for the entire $49m acquisition price of Elouera, we see script expanded by some 148m shares...and still a market cap still some $100m behind INR's.

This will rectify...I have no doubt of this...but I fail to see the reason the company feels it necessary to hold the stock down at this point in time.

Obviously there is a reason it would appear however, as it seems they have the 30-35c range in their sights.

I would bet my left nut there is a corporate reason for this.

When they sort it out, I have no doubt we will see a significant run develop...the hard bit will be determining when and then trying to catch it.

One way is to sit in waiting...as I am...another will be to watch for the break and buy in. The problem here however will be the limited stock on offer at such a time and likelihood of more bums than seats...I expect the opitions in particular will be like hens teeth when the real interest comes.

To be trading at the same market cap as INR's tonight, GUJ's would beed to be trading at 72c.

In my view, GUJ should be trading at a higher market cap...certainly not lower!

Cheers!