All futures, without exception are a derivative of Spot. They...

All futures, without exception are a derivative of Spot. They have nothing to do with estimating a future price.

Here is why;

Future price = Spot + Interest+ storage ( in other words) = spot + cost of carry.

This is the case without exception.

Because if it were not, there would be an opportunity to arbitrage.

Suppose futures are too high.

Borrow, buy spot, hold physical, and sell the futures contract to book an arb profit. This works in every possible direction.

Trading banks do this in fractions of a cent and large volumes.

There are no arbs in markets for more than a few seconds.

So spot is indeed down on Friday (25c) which cascades through every futures maturity because of the above relationship.