spp = price destruction!!, page-32

tcis, well thats the rub , you have to weigh and measure all the data, then you have to predict an outcome, folks whos ego's get to big about their predictive powers arent worth much in the end because they end up being to dogmatic and miss a turn or a crucial piece of data or perspective.

It is kind of hard in the current sea of data to pick the trend, to me the trend is very clear toward deflation, although i have a number of backup scenarios. The back ups are basically "ok if your wrong how would that occur"

Some of these back up scenarios are unique, for instance in my China Transition to Economic Leadership" Scenario I make the case for a rerun of the 1920 where the world transitioned from British economic leadership to American, in this case its the American handing over to the Chinese.

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=922382#4181908

There is a large number of familiarities between 2008 and 1920, if we are in this kind of re run then ANZ is good buying now, although even in this re run I reckon we will touch $10 on the way to $30.

The question is it 1920 or 29? if its 29 then ANZ is overvalued because we have the mother of all depressions to come, if its 1920 then its probably ok to buy now

My moneys on 1929 but hey I will be on the boat if we get some data to the contrary, the only thing thats saying 1920 at present is the spike in the Baltic Dry index, which is probably the most critical thing to watch at present