EL8 1.28% 39.5¢ elevate uranium ltd

Thanks mate. This board has been very quiet for a long time and...

  1. 67 Posts.
    Thanks mate. This board has been very quiet for a long time and it's good to hear views on the wider sector and Marenica itself. Apart from the few things I mentioned previously, there are other glaring anomalies in this situation that make you stop to think.

    The market capitalisation of TOE.AX is over 60X times the value of Marenica. The Wiluna project has 84MM lbs of U3O8 vs Marenica's 50MM lbs. And yes, it has a higher head grade, which should lead to improved economics and a project decision at a lower trigger price than what Marenica would be able to achieve on its own Namibian project. OK, all things equal, you could say that the Wiluna project is superior to Marenica's Namibian project. We know this already. But is it 60X times better when the likelihood of both projects moving forward may well rely on the same technology to make the difference?

    Then further consider that Areva has a similar rock to Marenica, being just 30KM apart in Namibia. And Areva has all the infrastructure available (albeit mothballed at current prices) to restart a U3O8 producing facility in a higher pricing environment. OK, again - clutching at straws! But "maybe" when we consider a decision to go to project by either Marenica or Areva in a higher pricing environment in the future, do we consider that Marenica would have to re-invent the wheel and look to secure independent project finance to build its own facility or could heads be knocked together in some profit sharing arrangement to process rock from both projects simultaneously using U-pgradeTM technology as the decisive cost-lowering trigger mechanism? For the purpose of giving an extremely crude example: if Marenica even achieved just a net $1/lb in a deal to have its Namibian U3O8 extracted, processed and sold in the future, this would have a cashflow value of US$50MM. We currently have a market cap of A$1.8MM. Again, this shows the deep optionality in picking up Marenica shares at this level and exercising a little patience.

    The bear market in commodities and U3O8 has left many stocks deeply bruised and battered. Those that have survived so far, can have a future when prices rise. Marenica is one of those that offers not only a project, but a value-adding way of extracting value from third party projects. It could well be a once in a lifetime opportunity if the stars align the right way.

    G
 
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