Agree Woodgnome. I am pretty sure they will refinance the debt. Mgt seem very confident of this.
However, even if they don't refinance, I don't think this will be the make or break for PNA. They have already rolled over the debt until 2010. While the terms are not particularly favourable, even if they need to issue 150m shares to GSJBW and pay an extra 3% interest, I don't think this will be enough to tip them over and I strongly believe they will survive irrespective.
What will make or break will be the copper price. If you think we'll see copper prices of below US$1.30 for an extended period, you probably wouldn't be buying PNA. If you feel that we may have seen the worst of the copper price, then PNA is a bargain.
In my opinion, the consolidation around US$1.40 for copper has been very encouraging. It seems to be bouncing off these levels very well. The move up in recent weeks has also been signifcant. Combine this with what appears to be a change in sentiment, some good signs out of China and the US stimulus package, i feel that we may have seen the worst. By mid 2009, markets will hopefully be looking ahead to a recovery in economic activity, which should see copper at level materially higher than they are now.
I understand any reservation - this market is certainly not for the faint hearted. But I think PNA will be a survivor...and I we survive, we will prosper again and those patient shareholders will be rewarded handsomely.
PNA Price at posting:
13.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held