Hi Allseasons89, yes I am doing ok, thankyou, but like all life cycles, I am in the 4 stage of the Weinstein one, and accept that with good grace. The dynamics of the market are really great for keeping the brain active and when you get older, you don't worry so much about risk having got into the habit of managing it and betting with what you can afford to lose. I hope what I have written below is what you are seeking. Of course its complex, but you have to start somewhere if you want to succeed.
There is not a person alive that has not copped a loss. It does not matter if you can learn from it and you have not lost your skin so as to go in again with a wiser head to build a kitty. It is important to fight the need to be 100% accurate, but take profits or protect them with minimum loss. Seven percent is a loss standard some use until they build a big kitty enough to trade in the shadow of market makers in order to break even after copping three losses in a row. Market makers press stops, fudge scans with trades after the bell, employ role players to make comment on social media etc. etc., but in time you learn their limits with Gann or Fibonacci. Those that trade on pure TA look at it in terms of a win loss ratio and target prices whether going for upside or shorting for downside big or small because there are cycles within cycles. An Elliot wave is a prime example which I often explore. It, like a Gartley pattern uses Fibonacci numbers and has high probability of predicting pivots and time frames. The other thing to be aware of is the energy levels within a cycle so as targets can be set realistically or the position held. Finally, the stage in a cycle which is really a bigger map of money flow should make you aware when there is about to be an inversion approaching or to expect change and therefore to position yourself accordingly. This is where the structure within the cycle has to be examined for symmetry (I use point and Figure charting for that) or patterns such as head and shoulders, double tops, double bottoms, bullish triangles, bear flags, Gartely harmonic patterns, candlesticks to add to awareness to pull the trigger on the setup along with moving averages. Mathematical techniques using fractals and standard deviation from the average can be used too because over time despite the market makers things seem return to the average in trend if they don't go broke. There are just so many indicators to choose from, but the trick is to keep it a simple as possible in relation to your level of understanding. That is different for me after 40 years than someone who is new. It takes a decade to master it. For the lazy man's average I use Donchian channels which uses the median average. I used to use Bollinger bands which encompass standard deviation and adjust the lower band for less tolerance. The use of key moving averages are also critical in understanding pivot points and trends.
However, my investing/trading is a little more complex in that I hold a core and reduce average cost by trading swings and sometimes intraday. Knowledge of what part the of the market cycle you are in is invaluable for forecasting the direction of the market and the likely pivot points which can be traded in the market structure. Gann techniques or Fibonacci exploration provide high probability outcomes. I plot these often. Knowledge is important but it is how you use it is more important. You have to use it selectively. It is important to control emotions of anxiety, anger, greed and fear which block logical thinking to make the best of the cards dealt. The market is brutal and the market makers deliberately play with sentiment, with stops and fake news because volatility increases cashflow for them and they have the capacity to be on both sides of the trade and retail does not. The trick is not to get spooked to maintain objectivity to learn the games people play in each of the market stages, to look for zones rather than the optimal.
Wyckoff was among the first few notable traders to segment the market cycle as depicted in the chart below and it is symptomatic of market maker activities which I don't intend to get into detail for the purpose of this discussion except to say things return to the average.
Over many years you get to read the tape and hopefully I can give you a few tips in regard to what you ask. If you notice what I use in most of my TA, its the Weinstein Business cycle. By having the chart colour coded to Weinstein I can anticipate market structure at a quick glance and concentrate on the indicators, patterns, or candlesticks within each phase.
In stage 1, the smart money is accumulating and it does so in many cases by stealth where hidden volume often leaves tracks in the butter which I sometimes post. It is an area where most others are not game enough to trade because the risk reward scenario is not high enough and those with greater fundamental knowledge or inside knowledge seize the opportunity because they are buying below value based on fundamentals. Position traders like to get set here too. In SPQ position traders and investors hold such a dominant position, that institutional traders and the games they play have been minimised. But they will enter based on profitability based on value with development. Sometimes the accumulation starts in Stage 4, so you have to use your cryptic imagination to analyse what is going on.
In Stage 2, institutions join the party and a safe growth area plays out. There are often join party statements made by rampers on HC or over the top valuations who are role play for market makers. RSI and MACD are good sentiment indicators, particularly when RSI is above 50 to maintain the swing.
Stage 3, is usually a topping period. It maybe a period of consolidation like in SPQ at the moment on a rising trend, and when news hits, the stage will revert back to Stage 2 and does not enter the declining stage of stage 4. I like to use the 50 sma or the 50 ema depending on chart curvature as depicted in a cup and saucer pattern or just simple for a linear chart (mathematical reasoning many don't understand).
Between stage 1 and 2 we get this take-off period often signaled by candle sticks, mean variance and momentum. During stage 2, which is an awareness stage picked up on scans or announcements, you can bet there will be a small sell off or a bear trap set at some point by market makers (institutions) getting a bit more or in need of turnover. Then the appropriate media attention is given to draw in retail and we get significant rise inspired by enthusiasm, then greed and finally delusion when the top blows off. This is a mania phase before settling into stage 3. Tweezer top candlesticks can indicate stage three has gone a little too far. People maybe in denial and think things will return to normal. That depends on the understanding of the company fundamentals. If price does not consolidate in a channel and the herd is in denial, its the perfect opportunity for the bull trap and then price may collapse into stage four often depicted by an engulfing bear candle, with fear capitulation and despair before, guess what? Price, returns to the mean. During stage three, down ramping often begins. Sometimes down-rampers work for smart money or facilitate takeover. Then there are trolls and narcissists who are attracted to the activity like blowflies to poo or angry people who have not managed capital with regard to the tape or TA. They are easy to spot and place on ignore. Sometimes we get caught by bad management. It pays to keep a list over time of poor directors. But in the case of a catastrophe outside one's control, or the company's you have got to some cut slack and understand what has happened..
Note, SPQ is consolidating again before takeoff, and that is because of huge support and knowledge of the fundamentals and future value prospects to which knowledgeable posters and management have contributed in discerning fashion.
Lassondre observed another cycle that is relevant to mine development that is worth noting. However in the case of SPQ, the stock is well held by big holders who I anticipate will see it through to final development or takeover for big buck because they bought in cheap which stops and games won't effect the outcome from discovery of a large resource. In which case the fluctuations in the cycle will be reduced. People will of course take profits. Here is where broker reports are good and of course declarations have to be made if over 5% holding sells can assist investment or trading.
Unfortunately, misinformation, intentional or otherwise can be damaging. Beware sentiment is scraped off HC by people into a data base, particularly by market makers. If Volume Spread analysis is used, then market testing by makers can be detected when they begin marking a price up or down. Its how it works. One silly comment may take 5 positive ones to restore the balance because as they say in the trade, there is a herd mentality in retail that falls to sharp tactics used by a few. Its great to have a say, but it looks better if its factual rather than rumour because its all about the bottom line when all is said and done.
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