Impressive discussion this weekend spq... well done.There's been...

Impressive discussion this weekend spq... well done.
There's been a number of good points raised here but like anyhting, my view is the eventual answer lies somewhere in the middle. I say that not to simply be a fence sitter, it's just a simple acknowledgement that the world will always be made up of different people, policy makers, leaders and followers alike on both sides of any debate. For me, the way to play investment is to identify the momentum.

Thing about momentum is, that without strong intervention, it will carry something way past where something should have got to before it eventually settles at a correct ethical or monetary value. That's why a stock retraces after a blowoff top yes? It was overvalued due to the momentum of the hype and fomo that took it there. It will retrace and sense will prevail.

This is just a prevailant in social issues. A movement that started with a simple desire by a social minority not to be judged, vilified and even assaulted just based on their sexual identity gained momentum and and fair equal opportunities and eventually acceptance for the most part were eventually achieved. That same momentum however has taken legislation in some countries to a point where a teacher can be jailed for telling a female student that she is a girl and not a Iphone if that what she 'identifies' as. That's plain and simply ridiculous and an example of momentum carrying a vaild cause too far.

IMO we are currently in this phase with EV and green energy. There are limitations that completely prevent this from being viable with our current technology. Granted tech will continue to develop at an exponential rate (and I understand the power of that word) but at the moment, we aren't even remotely close. That fact and applying all the common sense and data in the world will not stop the momentum of this predominantly social and goverment pushed movement. This is NOT market driven. The only reason EVs are viable is because we stifle the competition with ever tightening regulations on emissions and subsidise the EVs. I still own Tesla stock because the momentum continues. We are many years away from the 'blow off top' of this movement, so ride the wave guys. Might as well profit from it regardless of your view.

Things will cool off and we will see that retrace eventually. We'll become too dependant on the electrical supply, perhaps we'll realise we don't have enough copper, perhaps we'll see a policy shift in governments around the world, perhaps all of the above, but we will see the momentum slow and retrace and sensible and viable alternatives or compromises will rise. This I am sure off, what I am confident in but not sure of is what those alternatives and compromises will be.

For power generation I think wind is tapped out and doomed to fail but solar will continue to see great growth in tech and uptake at a industrial and nano level. Ultimately though, I don't see how thats enough in my lifetime and nuclear will be the necessary compromise.

For EVs, I hope the momentum slows before we build too many of these currently inefficient vehicles, but I doubt it. Now I may have come off as critical previously on legislation stifling the free market with emissions restrictions, but that's not really my view. I dislike unfair competition but that's the world we live in. The tightening emissions standards have had a tremendous bi-product. Although the standards that were created to essentially destroy an industry, the industry was so strong and the dependency of society on vehicles so great (hence the free market for them so large and profitable) that radical improvements have been made out of necessity. An internal combustion engine has now become so ridiculously efficient in not only emissions but fuel usage, I struggle to see how anyone can argue an EV is more efficient once you factor in all that goes into it right back to the copper that's dug out of the ground. Toyota did an excellent and extremely thorough study on this proving exactly that. And they pioneered hybrids. Now the momentum of this movement may well see the death of fossil fuel in cars, but definitely not so the internal combustion engine. It's too efficient and with the rapid progress in bio fuels, we are already seeing efficiency in man made fuel sources comparable to the efficiency of fossil fuels cars in the 90s. That tech will continue to grow and with a multibillion dollar industry driving its development, I think there's ever chance it prevails and we see bio fuel hybrids as the end result once the momentum has retraced.

...But who really knows, right? Wait and see. In the mean time, you can be confident in investing in copper. We need more than we have over the next 20 years regardless of any of the above.