EMR 0.76% $3.99 emerald resources nl

Sprott Talking Today 14th., page-15

  1. 9,048 Posts.
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    I will take the approach that you are genuinely trying to learn. Some things to note are as follows:

    They increased cash by $6m in AUD. They paid A$18m in tax. So take that out alone and project forward this quarters result and they make $24m.

    They pay loan interest and principal quarterly - probably a few million of principal so this still changes the enterprise value of the company as it reduces debt.

    They also would have put a few million dollars into Bullzeye (BE) which is creating incremental value by delineating a resource.

    So overall cash gen is very good particularly in comparison to most other gold companies.

    So let's move onto discussion of BE.

    You can't just say oh x company has this AISC so someone else will have something else. The reason that Okvau has a good AISC is not purely because it is in Cambodia. Labor costs help but they are a small factor. Other inputs could be more expensive to get into country for example. The main reason Okvau has good AISC is the fact its a 1.8-2g/t open cut mine with a lowish strip ratio of 6:1. A lot of the miners in WA are mining 1g/t or thereabout at higher strip ratio. This means they have to move 2-3x the dirt to dig up the same amount of ounces and they have to process 1.5-2x as many tonnes through their plants to get the same gold produced. THIS is where costs come from.

    BE historical MRE is 450koz at 2.46g/t. I expect that we might see some dilution as EMR look to bulk out the resource but reported drill holes have still been very good. I estimate that we might see the 1Moz MRE in the 1.5-1.8g/t range. This is likely still 50% higher than a lot of WA projects. It means a 2.5Mtpa plant at 92% recoveries would still be capable of producing 110-130kozpa similar to Okvau. This would mean it likely has reasonable AISC. Your US$1k might be close to the mark. But given gold trading 2x that, that is very healthy margins for a project.

    Yes this will cost money and yes they will probably use debt. That is the way these things work.

    This team is one of the best in the business along with CMM. Go look at their PFS today for an idea of what is achievable in WA if you have a good team. 0.9g/t reserve grade and 5Mtpa plant. They estimate they can build for A$260m and BE likely needs HALF the size. They also estimate an A$1,420 AISC. Again processing twice the amount of ore, albeit with a low 4:1 strip but still shows that if you double grade in an OP mine good costs are achievable.

    So conclusion. I think EMR can get it built for say A$175m. Well achievable. Costs will be very healthy. The IRR going to be well above any reasonable hurdle and as such why would you not build the project?

    The real question though is if you are new to gold why did you choose EMR out of the multitude of options?
 
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