Spud Price 2 cents, page-114

That meant to say - I'm certainly not trying to use TA to predict the results of a Wildcat drill, and surprised it would have come across as that.

TA is mapping current SP movement based on it's historical performance and current movement indicators only, as well as points of resistance, support etc. 

It should be stated in no uncertain terms that FA is also unable to accurately determine the results of a Wildcat drill. The Geologists can guess at the likelihood of the presence of hydrocarbons, but this is of course, a highly imperfect science at this stage of the game and the % COS of a commercial find is low. Just look at CVN's Dorado - they thought they were drilling for gas, but found lakes of oil instead. Imperfect science.

Even if Tullow hit hydrocarbons, it may be low porosity, low permeability, a dud API, high water contact etc etc. Lots of factors at play that any FA at this point simply cannot tell you. Course, if these ducks all line up, it goes nuts.

Most good TA I read on HC is very measured in it's forward SP movement suggestions. I stress the most bit though.....