You'd never guess from the volume of HC posting that MOG is...

You'd never guess from the volume of HC posting that MOG is spudding its first well in three years this weekend.

Good luck to all holders. Its been a long wait, but I have a good feeling about this one. 3-d seismic, great partner in Apache. More wells to follow this year and next. This is precisely the type of stock us oil traders live for isnt it?

I would have perhaps lightened my holding if MOG had shown a bit more pre-spud interest, but the upside/downside equation is all tilted towards holding:

Share-price in success case: MOG 16.6% share x 32mmbo x $22 per barel (Strachans attributable value for undeveloped Gippsland oil) divided by 79.5 million shares equals $1.47 per share (and up to $3.21 in the P90 case of 70 mmbo)

Share price in failure case: with forthcoming wells with STU and Apache: 7c to 10c

Probability of success: 15% - 25%

Current risked value: Between 29c (15% chance of success) and $1.17 (25% chance of success)

By my calculations, at 13c-14c I should be buying a lot more!

Cheers.