You'd never guess from the volume of HC posting that MOG is spudding its first well in three years this weekend.
Good luck to all holders. Its been a long wait, but I have a good feeling about this one. 3-d seismic, great partner in Apache. More wells to follow this year and next. This is precisely the type of stock us oil traders live for isnt it?
I would have perhaps lightened my holding if MOG had shown a bit more pre-spud interest, but the upside/downside equation is all tilted towards holding:
Share-price in success case: MOG 16.6% share x 32mmbo x $22 per barel (Strachans attributable value for undeveloped Gippsland oil) divided by 79.5 million shares equals $1.47 per share (and up to $3.21 in the P90 case of 70 mmbo)
Share price in failure case: with forthcoming wells with STU and Apache: 7c to 10c
Probability of success: 15% - 25%
Current risked value: Between 29c (15% chance of success) and $1.17 (25% chance of success)
By my calculations, at 13c-14c I should be buying a lot more!
Cheers.
MOG Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
