The claim that SQM will produce 216 ktpa at Atacama in 2025 has been shown to be completely bogus - a pity it was obviously a key factor in Morgan Stanley's "analysis". The source of that number was always no more than the opinion of Eduardo Bitran of CORFO. After a bit of probing from Joe Lowry, he has started to walk back his claim. The following has played out on twitter over the last couple of days
Joe Lowry @globallithium
Replying to @EduardoBitran@MorganStanley
Your estimate for SQM’s potential production in 2025 was completely at odds with their plans. Morgan Stanley foolishly followed your lead in grossly overestimating Atacama production. I have been answering phone calls from investors since you said 216K MT.
Eduardo Bitran @EduardoBitran1
Replying to @globallithium@MorganStanley
We estimated the increase for Albemarle and SQM together in 216 K for 2025 compared with 2016. Assuming that Albemarle increases its quota as requested. In total SQM should be producing slightly over 150 k in 2025, which is an increase of around 100 k regarding 2016 levels.
Joe Lowry @globallithium
Replying to @EduardoBitran@MorganStanley
SQM will not be producing 150K MT in the Atacama by 2025. We both know that. ALB is still struggling with LaNegra II so even with your “modified” story, you are exxagerating the 2025 situation.
The story certainly has been "modified"- the headlines of a few weeks ago screamed that SQM would be producing 216 ktpa by 2025.
Of course this 216 ktpa was simple reporting of Bitran's comments and not SQM's
Now we have seen for sure that SQMs plans are somewhat more cautious than that.
He put it out there, and now he has to walk it back...
So suddenly the comment should really have been read as - ALB plus SQM increase by 216 ktpa.
Except Joe points out the original comment... too funny
Bitran continues to rail against this in twitter and completely discredits Morgan Stanley. The market will eventually wake up.
Eduardo Bitran @EduardoBitran1
When The MS appeared in the news I was consulted by the press and I have said in different news that the assumption of 500 K increases in Production of Alb and SQM are wrong and in the best case with additional quota for ALB the raise for both would be 216 and not 500k.
Eduardo Bitran @EduardoBitran1
Lowry see Mercurio.I have said clearly that Ms was wrong, the production increase of both SQM and Alb would be 216k if Alb get new quota.Stop your non senses and recongnise in last 2 years @Corfo chainged the lithium landscape for the benefit of electro mobility and Chile
SQM have set out a timeline that they may or not achieve.
SQM have set out a significantly more modest expansion than that claimed by Bitran, which in turn is significantly more modest than the MS view.
The market will eventually wake up...
ORE Price at posting:
$5.88 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
