Certainly not as disciplined as I would like to be... but getting better. I use the CEO's forecast to estimate future growth and even then not further than 12 months i.e. as far as next FY25 interim report.
I am now using PEG ratios to help my decision making. Let's look at SRG.
est FY25 EPS 9.5c. At $1.175 (3c above friday's close) gives a PE ratio of 12.4. I've estimated 1Hfy25 earnings growth at 13% a considerable slowdown from current interim result.
PEG = PE/est growth = 12.4/13 = 0.95. Any PEG under 1.0 indicates exc value IMO. What gives me confidence is this firms outstanding trk record and the 80% recurring revenue indexed to inflation. Plus SRG's order book is huge.
PS. I decided to split my purchase either side of the ex-div date... not knowing how far the SP may fall. Am happy with buying at today's open price of $1.155.
I have 2 more "exceptional" small-cap industrials on my list. Both are currently too expensive but being thinly traded are susceptable to falling significantly should we see a general mkt sell-off.
PPS. Bear in mind I have not included the reasonably sized dividends + fr. credits of SRG in my calcs.
SRG Price at posting:
$1.21 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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