re: ssb upgrades to 6.40 target - a lie!!! The private client update to which my post refers is dated 26 March, copy of front page follows.
Note, fourth para upgrades price to $6.40, and final para upgrades to BUY
Earnings & Recommendation Upgrade
Diving Back into the Big Blue
† Based on industry feedback (participants, suppliers and competitors) we believe CHEP USA is now finally in a position to start delivering sustainable (lower risk) profit growth. We are also more confident that 2HFY04 should mark the start of improving EBITA margins with at least $27m in one offs from H1 not being repeated in H2.
† As a consequence we have upgraded NPAT by 4.4% ($15.7m) in FY04E, 3.7% in FY05E and 4.0% in FY06E. This is our first material earnings upgrade (excluding the DLC formation) in almost 6 years and marks the end of approx 45 downgrades we've made since 1999.
† The next key catalyst is likely to be the mid May trading update. We believe management has brought this forward a month to highlight the "steep" turnaround in 2H NPAT is both real and sustainable.
† Post the upgrade, LPR's recent losses and revisions to our CHEP and Recall valuations (based on recent transactions and the prospect that LPR is becoming a more rational competitor), we have upgraded our target price from $5.43 to $6.40 per share (20%+ upside).
† While we still believe a large leap of faith is required, we now feel the risk/reward of being underweight will prove costly. If CHEP Americas delivers on its potential and Cleanaway Europe rebounds in H2 as expected, we believe Brambles will be rerated accordingly.
† We have upgraded our 17 month old HOLD (2M) rating to BUY (1M).
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