st vs lt, + outlook

Fellow MEO holders,

I'm sure we are all sufficiently aware of the roller-coaster ride MEO has provided investors/traders over the years. I mention this as it is important in the context of what is happening here. Other posters have alluded to this in the form of money-flow, and previous substantial shareholders . . .

In the short term, the performance of MEO will be a function of supply and demand for MEO shares. After the 80c highs, traders have bailed as they viewed a delay to any upside (deal being made). . . and the bulls have already taking positions. In effect, despite the good news (that farmineer board has approved a FIRB worthy transaction, ie > $219m investment) the selling pressure has exceeded the latent buying demand.

Now that the festive season is behins us, MEO's share price in my view will better reflect the underlying fundamentals.

If you look at what the Feds are doing in the Browse, and the renewed major project status at TSMP, it is clear that the pressure is on to commercial reserves, ever dirty (CO2) resources and the TSMP makes sense.

Back to the share price it was only last week the cappers had the sell side over 12m fpo's . . . I managed another 300k at 43.5 this week. Now that the sells have been pulled we have just over 6m fpo's, so we can see the tide is turning.

I also share the view that MEO luring a major O&G company to Australia would be about more than Artemis, probably a TSMP kicker as well, maybe even Blackwood or Heron?

Note, MEO refers to the farminee as the preferred farminee . . . as in the line is long and the competition is very high, so expect a very good deal in my opinion.

Near term drilling will also support the share price. I'm not sure whether it will be next week or in december 2010, but at some stage in 2010, the MEO share price will break the $1 mark, whichever way you look at it, its a pretty good risk-reward play.

The longterm strategic O&G-LNG play was proven once again by KAR, my substantial holding is up 50% in the last month!

Good luck all, but keep you eye on the prize. The volume has dried up, sellers are fleeing, the good news is due in the next fortnight.

See you all at the other side of $1.