CTP (ASX) Stalker targets Central

Originally posted by OilGasPlanning ↑

Fellow CTP shareholders....

DYOR & this is not investment advice but in the middle of a takeover bid I beg your leave to be candid.

We are now waiting on a formal announcement detailing the current takeover bid.

I have put a lot of work into identifying risks to the current CTP business plan.

1. Pipeline risk.... GREEN
Refer to CTP management comments & my previous posts.

2. GRR claim risk.... GREEN Why ? IMO Unlikely to take the show out even in worst case scenario and its impact is more likely to be on shareholder sentiment and distraction.

3. Takeover risk.... AMBER (As of the Sydney Road show)

During question time at the Sydney shareholder presentation I asked Cottee "What is the takeover risk and mitigation".

Cottee replied in detail and in particular commented on the difficulty a (Takeover) aspirant would have in playing the "3 dimensional chess game".

0n 29/10/16 I posted on HC and endeavoured as best I could to provide a simplified view of the strategy as well as an overall impression of the meeting. (21 upticks).

Extract from my post "Over the last few days I have come see this road show as a significant milestone in ticking off the perquisite deliverables to give the CTP management (Including the very competent team Richard has surrounded himself with) the strategic "Optionality" to finance and execute moves that can be real game changers."

As it is another party appears to have come up with a similar conclusion.

4. New Risk Associated with the Takeover

Shareholder Sentiment

That IS something we shareholders can help mitigate.

Speaking for Myself...

1. I take Cottee at his word "3 Dimensional Chess game" and breathe a sigh of relief that It is Cottee who is heading the defence. Shareholder action plan... Just leave it to him.

2. Don't get distracted by the inevitable list of complainants.

Distractive aspersions will almost certainly abound.

I use the marker of constant complaint about water under the bridge to identify this group.

With apology to the moderator's watchful eye.

"When you are constantly looking backwards and complaining it is pretty hard to spot important strategic opportunities and risks when you are using your a! as your eyes".

3. Keep the radar on maximum gain waiting for direction from the (Visionary) CTP leadership headed by Cottee.

4. A wall of obstinate shareholder sentiment that just won't sell until the CTP board recommends is a takeover aspirant's worst enemy.

A very respected senoir colleague who serves on a number of boards in the middle of a pretty hard hitting conversation (Before we had any idea of the takeover bid) exclaimed, " CTP is a very good company and what it needs is "True Believers". Sounds like a platitude but on reflection it is spot on.

I genuinely sympathise with shareholders who need to liquidate CTP shares for personal reasons.

What we can do particularly those with the background to objectively evaluate the upside of this company is get on the phone & do a grass roots campaign of spreading the word.

Thatasboutallicanthinkof....

Best regards and good fortune to all.

OGP

My Latin is getting worse...

"Nil bastardo distractum et carborundum"... Don't let the bastards distract you and wear you down.

Expand

These are wise words from O&G. Thank you.

If an acquirer thinks (knows) there is a large bloc of shares held by dissatisfied shareholders begging to be bought out, it will act and price accordingly.

Imagine a low-ball offer that scoops up 20% then just plays the stock. We all lose.

Better to fake solidarity and unanimity - even by those who don't believe it.

We are about to experience a very public review of the value of CTP's assets and prospects. It will unquestionably boost the SP. We can only speculate by how much. I am very confident in RC's ability to play this moment with skill and to the benefit of all.

GLTAH

Ash

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(20min delay)
Last 5.5¢		Change 0.003(5.77%)		Mkt cap ! $40.98M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
5.4¢	5.5¢	5.4¢	$4.086K	75.54K

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