Further to my speculations above about forecast production and...

Further to my speculations above about forecast production and demand, I crunched some numbers about relative cathode content of Li and Co, using this table from a battery recycler, and the pie charts of forecast battery types in 2025 from a report by EV skeptics Stormcrow.

In battery types NCA, NMC, and LCO, which contain cobalt, there is a forecast annual need of 162.5Kt of LCE in 2025 (using a consensus figure of 250Kt for all types of batteries, Stormcrow assume more at 300Kt).

The cobalt necessary for those batteries is....... 774Kt!

(Has anyone else done this simple arithmetic?)

Recall that 2016 the entire world saw 123Kt of new Co produced, and the famous Katanga mine will add 11Kt in 2018. Even if 50% of all batteries used recycled Co (the forecast i think is 30%), there will be still 387Kt of new stuff needing to come out of the ground per year in 2025 and beyond.

Given that the DRC contains a total 3000Kt of Co, at that 50% rate it would be theoretically used up in less than 8 years. So much for the Congo making all other cobalt mining unviable.

The world needs more cobalt mines, immediately. EVs are expected to have long lives, so recycling bonuses probably won't kick in for some time.

If this is at all accurate, every known cobalt reserve on the planet will need to be exploited.