In my opinion, after reading the SIR quarterly report, I believe that the rather vague 'before mid-May' drilling date for Sirius's seemingly outstanding Centauri nickel prospect, to the south of Crux, Plato, etc. is determined by one simple thing:
The 9th May shareholder vote on the Creasy transaction.
If they were to drill that delicious nickel-copper gossan / EM-gravity target at Centauri and go straight into massive nickel sulphides in the first hole, the whole game would change, and the price/value of SIR shares and the Creasy transaction would be transformed.
As it stands, the transaction is agreed, advantageous to both sides, and if completed on a vote by SIR shareholders on 9th May, will benefit both parties. But if Sirius were to hit nickel sulphides and see a run on their share price before the 9th May meeting, the shareholders might be suddenly reluctant to agree to the transaction under the present terms. So better to get that one in the bag before the drilling starts.
So my bet is that once the transaction is approved, the rig will be onsite and will start drilling bang on 10th May. Yay!
And the next question then is: What percentage of Centauri does Mark Creasy have? Something that I have yet to get around to finding out.
And the one after that is, if like me you are still an ENT shareholder and not yet a SIR shareholder: where is the most leverage to a discovery at Centauri?
Is it in a beaten-down company just along strike with a market cap of $11 million, which has great prospects but is living on the smell of an oily rag? (the 'Sirius' of yesteryear, perhaps..)
Or is it in a soon-to-be-miner with an enterprise value of $605 million (which is the market cap of $702 million less cash at bank of $96.8 million) that actually holds the land that I believe the discovery is likely to be made on?
Well, I reckon you could move the next door neighbour from 5c to 10c on pure infectious enthusiasm, but it might take a bit more grunt to double the market cap of Sirius, to the requisite $1.4 billion.
It would feel awfully good to be holding the one that made the discovery though.
And besides which, I got totally owned the last time I played the 'nearology' game. (It did'nae work!) So nearology's a bit suspect as far as I'm concerned.
Maybe I will just pile in and buy a small parcel of SIR as well, on or around Monday 5th May, just to say that I was there!
(But don't pay any attention to anything I say, and never act on it. I am not a financial adviser and this is not financial advice)
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