Hi KiwiladJudging by the market price I think most investors and...

Hi Kiwilad

Judging by the market price I think most investors and analysts are not expecting much... so if in fact they do get a result then it could spark a rush for stock. The liquidity is very low at the moment, so a spike wouldn't be out of the question.

In the very short term it will come down to OVATURE. Did Phenoxodiol help cancer patients. It begs the question, why didn't the IDMC stop the trial early after reviewing efficacy data if it was futile to continue? Why did professor Mainwaring at one of the trial centres say "...women have lived longer than we would have expected", why did Novogen continue with the trial protocol (and hence spent significant amounts of time and money) managing the data to the nth degree, why did they see a substantial range of time frames of patients staying on trial (from the number of pages slide), why did patients live longer in the phase II trial, why did Yale select Phenoxodiol after testing all available drug both in market and in development etc etc.

Has the market already priced in failure? If they announce poor results how much further can it fall? It's already fallen from around it's all time high of around $8 to around 40c... but has net assets of around $20m, and around 185m in accumulated losses (any hidden IP value hidden in that loss?).

OVATURE, even if the results are poor (and there still is some chance of success), is not the end of the story. They have just completed a Phase II prostate study and have developed more potent anti-cancer compounds e.g. Triphendiol and NV128.

Personally I think the stock is undervalued, not for the wrong reasons as everyone is frustrated with the delays. But given a new CEO is expected to join, they could well extract value from the years of research and support they have from groups like Yale. This isn't a recommendation to buy, or any other recommendation. Just my personal view that there still is considerable upside, just not without risk.