state of play in H1 2016

https://roskill.com/news/global-commodities-trade-state-play-h1-2016/

Lithium
Combined exports of lithium carbonate from Chile and Argentina reached almost 45,250t in H1 2016, up 50% on H1 2015. The ramp-up at Olaroz in Argentina by Orocobre and increased output from SQM and Rockwood in Chile has all contributed to the rise, but FMC’s output from Hombre Muerto in Argentina was only slightly higher y-on-y. An additional 515t was shipped from China in H1, down 37% y-on-y. Average values of exports were US$6,904/t and US$6,818/t for Argentinean and Chilean exports respectively, representing rises of around US$2,500/t and US$2,000/t on H1 2015 as 2016 contract prices witnessed a significant jump following undersupply-driven market tightness. Chinese exports at over US$25,000/t reflected limited off-contract (spot) material availability to plug the gap, having risen by around US$17,000/t y-on-y.
South Korean imports of carbonate exceeded 11,350t and Japanese imports were 9,925t in H1, up 70% and 50% respectively from 6,690t and 4,980t in H1 2015, reflecting greater requirements from two of the three largest battery/battery raw material producing countries. Chinese imports, largely from Chile, hit 6,150t, up 26% on H1 2015. The USA received 7,070t, more than two-thirds from Argentina and destined largely for hydroxide conversion by FMC, down 10% y-on-y, but Belgian imports were up 64% over the same period at 6,110t.
Exports of lithium hydroxide from the USA, China, Chile and Russia were almost 12,260t in H1 2016, down over 1,000t on H1 2015 largely on reduced US and Chinese exports, with increased Chilean exports offsetting these reductions by around 1,000t. Japanese imports of hydroxide were almost 3,340t, down 35% y-on-y, but South Korean imports were up 65% at 2,420t, as South Korean manufacturers boost output of high-nickel cathode materials. Belgian imports also rose 20%, with Russia (SQM tolling through CHMP) now the leading supplier. Average values of exports from Chile increased by almost US$1,500/t and China US$5,500/t, but Russian exports were only US$200/t higher and US exports fell by around US$500/t.


Tantalum
The tantalum market remained subdued during H1 2016. Imports of tantalum-niobium concentrates into China (the largest buyer) from Africa (its largest supplier) were up by about 15% y-on-y. This has not translated into upward price movement, however. In H1 2015, the quoted price for 30% Ta₂O₅ concentrate CIF China averaged about US$80/lb. During H2, the average dropped to US$62/lb. H1 2016 has seen an average below US$60. It may well be that buyers are in an inventory-building phase.
An interesting reported development is that buyers are becoming more aware of the value of the niobium units in the tantalum concentrates they buy. Historically, niobium contained in a concentrate where tantalum dominates has essentially been given away for free. Buyers are not necessarily now paying directly for the niobium content but they are reportedly prepared to pay a higher price for tantalum concentrate with a good niobium content.