We now know from today's announcement that: > H1 & H2 are interpreted to be part of same structure. > GWC likely to extend another 200m+ > If filled to spill there is likely to be 5Tcf (P50) of gas at Heron > Given the amount of seismic on this project and well data, the boundary assumptions are faily tight, hence only a small variance b/w P50 and P90. > My guess is that there is an 90% chance that the GWC extends below H-2 (as mapped) and a 90% chance that Heron North & South are linked (given common GWC - interpreted). > All other factors, including rock volume and presence of gas are all well constrained. > Therefore there is an 81% POS that Heron will contain 5Tcf of gas, enough to sustain a LNG development. > Given the high POS and MEO's 100%, MEO should be able to give up 40% of the project (staged earn-in) for a free carried interest in 2 exploration wells, or: Give up 60% for the free carry in two wells and a signature fee of $40m. > More importantly, post-appraisal, there is ~80% chance the value of gas in place will be many times MEO's current market-cap. > All this will cost us nothing. > No wonder the board are looking for new projects! > Odds on that PBR will farm-in to NT/P68. A global major does not build an internation project portfolio based on one permit!
MEO Price at posting:
51.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
