state of play

Just some questions to those who may be able to shed some more light on a few things.

- When are the Yowie chocolates going to be distributed in Aus, NZ and USA?
- Will the Co. be able to fast track a ramp up in production from the current 20m to beyond the 40m which will come online in late 2014? (some points below on why speeding up output ASAP would be great).
- What is the state of play in regard to the lawsuit with Candy Treasure? see: http://www.candyindustry.com/articles/85824-lawsuit-claims-candy-treasure-eggs-copied-yowie-eggs

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After a bit of searching online, the "Choco Treasure" eggs are selling fairly well, with larger 4x12 packs and 8x12 packs listed as sold out on http://candytreasure.myshopify.com/products/choco-treasure-chocolate-surprise-eggs
only 1x12 packs are available for purchase online.

With the price of a 12 pack online being 14.49 USD (A$16.23) - this equates to $1.35 an egg. I would presume Yowies will be in this 1.00 - 1.50 price range when introduced back to the shops.

Looking at discussion on here ballpark figures of 20c to 50c margins per unit have been discussed.

When selling for $1
At 20c margin x 20,000,000 = $4,000,000
At 50c margin x 20,000,000 = $10,000,000

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Hopefully we see a pricing of somewhere in this range and towards the higher end in regards to margin. Obviously once we are able to double production - these figures also double going into 2015. The sooner we can bring these products to market the better. To compliment the sold out online store, videos on youtube demonstrate just how popular chocolate eggs are to collectors (see how almost none of them eat the chocolate but are after the collectable toys) - with videos hitting the tens of millions of views to watch people unwrapping their eggs and finding their toys.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcsagUBRBK4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0sSvZfJNuo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teASJBatVCE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gtnryEASnY

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I think the potential here is great. I always remember getting a Yowie almost every second week as my Friday afternoon treat after school. Bringing them back, it will be interesting to see how appealing they are to the kids but also to those who have nostalgic memories and want to get some for them, family and friends.
In any case, the distribution will be crucial as demand initially may be higher than supply (20m units to be distributed worldwide? USA, NZ, AUS + others?? please correct me if 20m is just for AUS but if not any supply would be quickly eaten ;) )

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With an average PE of 15 in the industry, a few years of healthy, growing sales will no doubt see Yowie trading at a PE of at least 10 - looking at earnings at 20m capacity with a 35c margin (middle of 20-50c) and a PE of 10, SP comes out at 67c - currently trading at 0.755c or PE ~11x. Based on this year production of ~20m current PE of future earnings is ~8x (at 50c margin) or ~19x (at 20c margin).

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Interested to hear other people's thoughts on the Yowie comeback. If this plays out well and management are able to get more units off the production line and into the supermarkets - especially to markets in the US the 60m that were sold in AUS (+NZ?) alone in 1996 starts to look very achievable.

Longer term with capacity double, triple etc from here the picture gets even better. On the basis of course that the targets are all met.

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Hoping that this week is sweet to all holders, if anyone else has any info that could help other LT holders would be much appreciated. Also if anyone has any answers or corrections to my questions or calculations, would be great!

Cheers and GLTA.
Liam