stategy to finance abu dabab - enemies around?, page-22

One must not say belatedly, considering the ongoing economic crises. I´m happy that we will have two years from now, before first selling may occur. This crises will be bigger, IMO more severe than anyone may have experienced within his life time. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume decling demand in some very decent percentages.

Thus, the period of time before the market is empty of Tantalum, due to lack of Talison, may not be 18 months, as Dennis Zogbi evaluated in his recent study, but longer. One can follow this development by loocking at the trend of Tantalum prices.

If the trend goes down (it has gone up throughout this year by roughly 70%, but JT had not adjust the revenue stream throughout this year!!!), this will indicate less demand from supplyers. I also guess, the increase during this year was due to buying for storage in advance of the Wodgina closing.

In any case, it is very likely that Talison stays away as long as prices may decline. If they don`t - or even increase to the point of production - this will be good for GIP, anyway.

Doubts about the success of the project related to the share price are meaningless, in my mind. Good and save (German government guarantee!!) projects will always get funded (in this case even by Starck himself??).

transmeta