Static food grains production spells danger for the country of 1120 millions
2007-02-15 12:21:32 - The second week of February, 2007 brought forth more or less disastrous news on the agriculture front, which should no longer remain relegated as a State subject
The second week of February, 2007 brought forth more or less disastrous news on the agriculture front, which should no longer remain relegated as a State subject -which it is now under the Constitution- and it is time the Prime Minister seeks to stage in right earnest the "second green revolution" he has been speaking about for the last nearly three years.
On February 5,the Ministry of Food, Civil Supplies and Consumer Affairs issued a press release saying that the production of wheat during the current Rabi season would be "significantly higher" than that in the previous season because of higher areas covered under the crop this year, up from 26.65million hectares (mha) in 2005-06 to 28.18 mha in 2006-07.
Total food grains production during the current year (2006-07) was estimated, that day, to be 5.8 million tonnes higher than in the previous year's final estimate of 208.59 million tonnes.
The very next day's press release shattered, as it were, this dream. According to the second advance estimate for the current year 2006-07 (July 2006 to June 2007), total food grains production will be only 209.17 million tones, an insignificant increase of just 58 lakh tonnes from the previous year's final figure.. Incidentally, the population of the country will increase during this period by 12 to 15 million.(The Ministry of Agriculture publishes four advance estimates of food grains production during a year, based on reports from the States and then does its own verification before releasing the final figure, almost a year after the end of the previous agriculture year. The final figures for 2005-06 was published on Feb.6 this year)
Wheat has played a spoilsport, this year too. The final figure for the year 2005-06 places it at 69.35 million tonnes, about a million tones more than estimated earlier (fourth advance estimate). However, the second advance estimated for the current year 2006-07 says only 72.50 million tonnes would be produced, against the highly optimistic figure of 74 million tonnes plus claimed by the Minister of Agriculture, Mr. Sharad Pawar, last Month.
Thus it becomes obvious that this year (2007) too wheat has to be imported in order to ensure steady supply for the public distribution system if not meeting the needs of the people in general. Rise in prices becomes inevitable in such a situation and with inflation at a higher level now, things do not appear to be rosy for the common man in the days ahead.
It is not generally known that, contrary to normal process, the production of food grains is actually going down for the last three years while it should increase every year in order to meet the demands for a growing population. The highest production of food grains in the country so far has been in 2003-04, when it was 213.46 million tonnes. The very next year, the figure came down to 198.36 million tonnes, a drop of 15 million tonnes.
In the next two years as mentioned earlier, the production recovered somewhat but has not yet reached even the figure of 210 million tonnes. Incidentally, the Planning Commission had fixed a target of production of 230 million tonnes of food grains for the final year of the tenth plan, 2006-07. According to the second advance estimate for 2006-07, production will be only 209.17 million tones, about 21 million tonnes less than this target.
Let us take the production of the two major food grains, rice and wheat. The highest production of rice so far has been 93.34 million tonnes, in 2001-02.The final figure for 2005-06 says that production of rice was 91.69 million tonnes, still .1.65 million tones less than the highest figure attained four years earlier.
The story of wheat is more pathetic. The highest recorded production of 76.37 million tonnes was in the year 1999-2000,six years ago. Since then, there has been steady decline - every year - in the production of wheat. Even in 2006-7, according to the second advance estimate, it will be only 72.50 million tonnes. Last year (2005-2006) according to the final figures, it was only 69.35 million tonnes. The recent rains might have improved the prospects of wheat somewhat and one hopes the production will touch the high figure of 75 million tones. Even then, it will be about two million tones less than in 1999-2000.
No wonder, the advance estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the year 2006-07 has projected a low figure of 2.7 per cent increase in agriculture. About a week ago the Central Statistical Organization had estimated that the GDP growth with respect to agriculture for the year 2005-06 was six per cent, a highly optimistic estimate, to say the least.
The Union Minister for Agriculture has opined that the country should freely import food grains and freely export it too. He has also stressed the need for taking steps that would make more farmers quit the profession and take to other means of occupation such as had happened in his own Lok Sabha constitu4ncy of Baramati in Maharashtra where, he has claimed, multi-national companies had set up industries providing gainful employment for the people on agricultural fields acquired by them from farmers quitting agriculture.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has been stressing from day one that with Mr. Sharad Pawar as the Minister of Agriculture, the entire country would become like Baramati as had been done by Mr. Pawar (with respect to development of agriculture)). Will Dr. Singh advocate now the same prescription for the entire country as Sharad Pawar has done with respect to his Baramati constituency?
Lastly, as if to add insult to injury, the Central Statistical Organization announced on Feb. 9, 2007 that the rate of inflation in the week ending January 27 had risen to 6.58 from the figure of 6.11 during the week ending January 20.What now?
