Another tip i can give thats helped me is to understand the psychology of whats going on. That is to work out whether a horse is a genuine chance or running for other reasons. For example, trainers (usually small ones) sometimes bullshit to the owners about the horses chances to get them to pay high entrance fees for big races. Whats really going on is the trainer looking for advertising and publicity or looking 4th or 5th prize money. Sometimes the trainers talked these owners into paying a lot of money for it as a yearling and cant tell the owners its a dog and keeps making excuses for its form and has to nominate it for races it cant win. Sometimes especially when a horse has lots of owners its the owners wanting to run it just to get into Flemington members etc. When ever i see a horse with dodgy form in a big race the first thing i do is see who owns it and how many owners there are. For example if i see A Cummings has this type of runner and then find he is the sole owner then I'm much more confident of it running above its exposed form because he has no pressure and has paid the acceptance money himself.
And of course there wouldnt be regular 50/1 winners if trainers new every time a horse is going to run well. C
