ARI 0.00% 2.2¢ a.c.n. 004 410 833 limited

Staying below 0.18, page-3

  1. 407 Posts.
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    Moodymephis you're right - best not to watch.The long/short guys & shorters know how to push a stock like this around - knowing that arrium would be removed from S&P 100 index & number of insto's could no longer hold - gives them ability to magnify the share price movements & cause havoc with remaining small share holders perception of fair value/price.

    Take comfort in following facts:
    1) They could sell mining consumables tomorrow & retire their entire debt and have a piggy bank left over afterwards (see recent Deutche analyst's write up in AFR - selling just 50% share in this grinding business would yield about $950M). i..e 100% = $1.9bn clear.
    http://www.copyright link/p/markets...cus_table_selloff_talk_xdPIMdvra8gXhNf3c2Pz5I

    2) Aussie dollar collapse will finally bring their steel business back onto a much stronger footing with imported steel - although this will probably take about 4-6 months to start hitting their numbers (got to clear existing imported stock).

    3) Entire short position in stock is just 2.3% (See link below) - i.e. most of damage has been done by insto's unable/unwilling to hold the stock as it departed the ASX100 index &/or not fitting safe/stable cashflow criteria. This sellout is aggravated by hedge fund/shorts taking out key technical levels & destroying rallies - but eventually their game will be up - ride it out & don't watch the screens - that is exactly what they want you to do & sell when pain gets too much. Stock will recover, will just take some time after so much volatility. No one is adding to short positions from here - they know it has been overdone already.  
    https://dv8nx270cl59a.cloudfront.net/media/2317376/daily-short-positions_en-au_03122014.pdf

    4) Fact Allan Gray has been buying is a very good sign - these guys are deep value investors (look for unloved stocks where price not reflecting intrinsic value in business) and step where more conservative fund managers don't have a mandate/the balls to go. They have a string of successes in this field (a recent one was buying Fairfax at 38-45c when everyone in media saying it had no future, as usual arguments oversimplified and bollocks - try setting up a distribution channel like Fairfax's overnight!). Occassionally get it wrong (Paperlinx), but far more right calls than wrong. They also saw deep value emerging when stock was trading in the low-mid 30c range - so current share price a screaming buy from eventual intrinsic value perspective (price will eventually reflect this for the courageous and patient).

    5) They are their own customer for lot of their Iron Ore production (for Whyalla), so spot price doesn't matter as much as pure-play IO producers. Worst case they just shut their IO mine for few years & buy from RIO/BHP. Not ideal, and still leaves questions over past strategy to move into IO production so aggressively, but it is not a show-stopper.

    Good luck fellow investors - not entirely without risk due to debt - and they may need to sell stake in mining consumables to reduce gearing - but pretty sure this will be one of those terrific opportunities that get thrown up by irrational markets occasionally, and will be obvious only in hindsight and time.
 
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