I think you are correct that historic promises, and an inability to deliver on them, left some pretty deep wounds with investors. It seems to me that these are slowly healing, but these things take a lot of time. To illustrate this, I think it's interesting that management is coming in for much less criticism on here than it once did. That's not to say the critics aren't still here - I'm sure they are, and I'm sure they still have stock to unload - but it seems the balance of viewpoints is slowly shifting. Long term, I think that's a good sign.
Having said the above, I think we're still in a "show-me-the-money" phase. The market is listening, but it wants proof. The last two announcements, whilst essentially good positive background haven't provided a concrete result. They've been useful steps to get to a result, but I think what we want to hear is "Yep, Seychelles is all signed. It is happening. Here are all the final details you needed to know, and we've got the $4m in the bank."
The day regulatory approval was granted, the stock was up 40% at one point, then it sagged. My take is that was because the market realised things weren't quite finalised, and we all know failing at the last hurdle sometimes happens. Getting the Seychelles deal wrapped up and signed off will give the company a great platform to work from. When DR markets the stock, when RFC Ambrian and Phillip Capital are pushing their buy recommendations, it'll be a lot easier to do when they can point to a track record of getting stuff signed. One farm out might be lucky (AWE), two might be coincidence (Tap), but three (Ophir) must be some kind of skill IMHO. That track record will also be helpful in marketing their intention with whatever next project they come up with. Hopefully final Seychelles signatures come very soon.
Finally, my thoughts on the La Bella 3D release. When I read it I was also a bit underwhelmed. There's nothing bad in it, nothing to get upset about, but there wasn't much to get excited about either. Now, this was only an update on incomplete data and is only a step on the process to an end point (here being the mid year AWE decision to drill or not), so maybe we shouldn't expect too much from it, but I at least hoped for some more comfortable reading.
I spoke to DR a couple of days ago and tried to gauge if he was unhappy with the dataset. I'd say he is not unhappy with it, but is rather trying to not fall into the previous traps of hyping-up before it's reasonable to do so. I'm happier with that approach to communications (I'm a long term investor, not a trader) and rather than "drum-banging" would prefer to see "quiet confidence" even if this time the release didn't instantly communicate that to me.
GLTA and DYOR.
QFY Price at posting:
1.1¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
