Hard to pick a bottom with any share. Selling pressure still effecting VOC. Every chance that the market is also reacting to the expectation of a further capital raise as foshadowed in the recent EGM notice. Perhaps holders are offloading in expectation of being able to acquire stock at a discount to market value in any cap raise. I think its a good thing as a bit of the froth is being blown of the VOC share price. There are a few price anchors, with the Roger Montgomery recommendation with a buy price of 2.40 if I recall and also the $2 anchor via the recent capital raise and then you have the Microequities report with a price target of 2.03 which was fairly uncerimoniously ignored by the market initially however we may correct back to that price (which will no doubt result in the relevant ME analyst developing that warm and fuzzy I told you so feeling). Its hard to see the next catalyst for share price appreciation in the short term (say 3 to 6 months). If another material acquisition is announced it would seem it will be funded by a capital raise which may put pressure on the price further, although having said that if its a remarkable deal then who knows. You also have the escrow shares coming out of escrow in the next few months. This may not put pressure on the price as the holders may not sell but then again they may. If they do sell then this will obviously put pressure on the price and will also increase the free float on the market which will probably ease the scramble effect which pushed the price up recently - i.e. holders scrambling to accumulate limited stock. Then obviously we will have the full year results which will provide a price movement catalyst. With estimates ranging from EPS of 13 to 16 cents per share I am not sure the market will be throwing a party come release of the results. I suppose it will depend on the markets propensity to look forward to future earnings. With FY12 earnings estimates in a range of anywhere between 18 to 23 cents per share, with future strong growth predicted thereafter then I think its a good bet at anything around the $2 mark.
VOC Price at posting:
$2.21 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
